Related papers: A new method for computing the expected hitting ti…
In the game of cricket, the result of coin toss is assumed to be one of the determinants of match outcome. The decision to bat first after winning the toss is often taken to make the best use of superior pitch conditions and set a big…
We build a new probability measure on closed space and plane polygons. The key construction is a map, given by Knutson and Hausmann using the Hopf map on quaternions, from the complex Stiefel manifold of 2-frames in n-space to the space of…
An urn contains balls of d colors. At each time, a ball is drawn and then replaced together with a random number of balls of the same color. Assuming that some colors are dominated by others, we prove central limit theorems. Some…
In this paper we model basketball plays as episodes from team-specific non-stationary Markov decision processes (MDPs) with shot clock dependent transition probabilities. Bayesian hierarchical models are employed in the modeling and…
By using numerical and semiclassical methods, we evaluate the quantum breaking, or Ehrenfest time for a wave packet localized around classical equilibrium points of autonomous one-dimensional systems with polynomial potentials. We find that…
We study the number of white balls in a classical P\'olya urn model with the additional feature that, at random times, a black ball is added to the urn. The number of draws between these random times are i.i.d. and, under certain moment…
In this paper, we introduce and study a time-changed variant of the Erlang queue with multiple arrivals where the time-changing component used is the first hitting time of a tempered stable subordinator. The system of fractional…
Random walk based distributed algorithms make use of a token that circulates in the system according to a random walk scheme to achieve their goal. To study their efficiency and compare it to one of the deterministic solutions, one is led…
Consider testing multiple hypotheses in the setting where the p-values of all hypotheses are unknown and thus have to be approximated using Monte Carlo simulations. One class of algorithms published in the literature for this scenario…
We study the first hitting time statistics between a one-dimensional run-and-tumble particle and a target site that switches intermittently between visible and invisible phases. The two-state dynamics of the target is independent of the…
The Makespan Scheduling problem is an extensively studied NP-hard problem, and its simplest version looks for an allocation approach for a set of jobs with deterministic processing times to two identical machines such that the makespan is…
We consider the allocation of $m$ balls (jobs) into $n$ bins (servers). In the standard Two-Choice process, at each step $t=1,2,\ldots,m$ we first sample two bins uniformly at random and place a ball in the least loaded bin. It is…
We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given…
How many fair coin tosses to choose 1 of $n$ options with uniform probability? Although a probability problem, the solution is essentially number-theoretic, with special roles for Mersenne numbers, Fermat numbers, and the haupt exponent. We…
We consider an urn model, whose replacement matrix has all entries nonnegative and is balanced, that is, has constant row sums. We obtain the rates of the counts of balls corresponding to each color for the strong laws to hold. The analysis…
Distributionally robust chance constrained programs minimize a deterministic cost function subject to the satisfaction of one or more safety conditions with high probability, given that the probability distribution of the uncertain problem…
The forward prediction problem for a binary time series $\{X_n\}_{n=0}^{\infty}$ is to estimate the probability that $X_{n+1}=1$ based on the observations $X_i$, $0\le i\le n$ without prior knowledge of the distribution of the process…
In many real life situations one has $m$ types of random events happening in chronological order within a time interval and one wishes to predict various milestones about these events or their subsets. An example is birdwatching. Suppose we…
We introduce a new version of dynamic time warping for samples of observed event times that are modeled as time-warped intensity processes. Our approach is devel- oped within a framework where for each experimental unit or subject in a…
Given $n$ colored balls, we want to detect if more than $\lfloor n/2\rfloor$ of them have the same color, and if so find one ball with such majority color. We are only allowed to choose two balls and compare their colors, and the goal is to…