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We obtain Azuma bounds for the probabilities of being away from the limit for a class of urn models. The method consists of relating the variables to certain linear combinations using eigenvectors of the replacement matrix, thus bringing in…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-01 Amites Dasgupta

The expected goal provides a more representative measure of the team and player performance which also suit the low-scoring nature of football instead of score in modern football. The score of a match involves randomness and often may not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Mustafa Cavus , Przemysław Biecek

We introduce a particle model, that we call the $\textit{golf model}$. Initially, on a graph $G$, balls and holes are placed at random on some distinct vertices. The balls then move one by one, doing a random walk on $G$, starting from…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-02 Zoé Varin

We study the simple random walk on the $n$-dimensional hypercube, in particular its hitting times of large (possibly random) sets. We give simple conditions on these sets ensuring that the properly-rescaled hitting time is asymptotically…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jiri Cerny , Veronique Gayrard

We introduce and discuss a special type of feedback interacting urn model with deterministic interaction. This is a generalisation of the very well known Eggenberger and Polya (1923) urn model. In our model, balls are added to a particular…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-15 Krishanu Maulik , Manit Paul

We introduce a new class of balanced allocation processes which bias towards underloaded bins (those with load below the mean load) either by skewing the probability by which a bin is chosen for an allocation (probability bias), or…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-12 Dimitrios Los , Thomas Sauerwald , John Sylvester

Gimbert and Horn gave an algorithm for solving simple stochastic games with running time O(r! n) where n is the number of positions of the simple stochastic game and r is the number of its coin toss positions. Chatterjee et al. pointed out…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2012-03-21 Rasmus Ibsen-Jensen , Peter Bro Miltersen

Consider the following process whereby $n$ balls are distributed into $k$ bins. Repeatedly, a ball is removed from a non-empty bin chosen uniformly at random. The process ends when a single non-empty bin remains. Will Ma…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-16 Jose Correa , Marcos Kiwi , Vasilis Livanos , Eilon Solan , Ron Solan

We make precise sense of the idea of "molecular chaos" through algorithmic randomness of microscopic trajectories, and ground macroscopic irreversibility in the lack of symmetry under time reversal of this property. This concept of…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-12-24 Nino Dekkers , Klaas Landsman

We study the competing urn model in which $m$ balls are placed independently into $n$ urns according to (possibly distinct) ball distributions. Kahn and Neiman (2010) showed that, under identical ball distributions, the induced urn measure…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-09 Swee Hong Chan

A P\'olya urn process is a Markov chain that models the evolution of an urn containing some coloured balls, the set of possible colours being $\{1,\ldots,d\}$ for $d\in \mathbb{N}$. At each time step, a random ball is chosen uniformly in…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-13 Cécile Mailler , Jean-François Marckert

We consider a randomized urn model with objects of finitely many colors. The replacement matrices are random, and are conditionally independent of the color chosen given the past. Further, the conditional expectations of the replacement…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-10-18 Ujan Gangopadhyay , Krishanu Maulik

We deal with a continuous-time Ehrenfest model defined over an extended star graph, defined as a lattice formed by the integers of $d$ semiaxis joined at the origin. The dynamics on each ray are regulated by linear transition rates, whereas…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-18 Antonio Di Crescenzo , Barbara Martinucci , Serena Spina

Herman's self-stabilisation algorithm allows a ring of $N$ processors having any odd number of tokens to reach a stable state where exactly one token remains. McIver and Morgan conjecture that the expected time taken for stabilisation is…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-08-12 John Haslegrave

In the Schr\"odinger evolution of a quantum state time enters as a real parameter representing the coordinate. In a more consistent approach time should be defined as a quantum observable, with the evolution taking place in a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-30 Marek Góźdź , Andrzej Góźdź , Krzysztof Lider

We study the problem of characterizing the expected hitting times for a robust generalization of continuous-time Markov chains. This generalization is based on the theory of imprecise probabilities, and the models with which we work…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-28 Thomas Krak

We study the repeated balls-into-bins process introduced by Becchetti, Clementi, Natale, Pasquale and Posta (2019). This process starts with $m$ balls arbitrarily distributed across $n$ bins. At each round $t=1,2,\ldots$, one ball is…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2023-03-15 Dimitrios Los , Thomas Sauerwald

This paper explores the distribution of indistinguishable balls into distinct urns with varying capacity constraints, a foundational issue in combinatorial mathematics with applications across various disciplines. We present a comprehensive…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-07 Jingwei Li , Thomas G. Robertazzi

We propose a method of detecting a phase transition in a generalized P\'olya urn in an information cascade experiment. The method is based on the asymptotic behavior of the correlation $C(t)$ between the first subject's choice and the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-02-15 Masafumi Hino , Yosuke Irie , Masato Hisakado , Taiki Takahashi , Shintaro Mori

Consider a coin tossing experiment which consists of tossing one of two coins at a time, according to a renewal process. The first coin is fair and the second has probability $1/2 + \theta$, $\theta \in [-1/2,1/2]$, $\theta$ unknown but…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-25 Diego Marcondes , Cláudia Peixoto
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