Related papers: Debugging of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) Mode…
Uplift modeling aims to directly model the incremental impact of a treatment on an individual response. In this work, we address the problem from a new angle and reformulate it as a Markov Decision Process (MDP). We conducted extensive…
Multi-agent planning under stochastic dynamics is usually formalised using decentralized (partially observable) Markov decision processes ( MDPs) and reachability or expected reward specifications. In this paper, we propose a different…
This letter introduces a convergence prediction model (CPM) for decentralized market clearing mechanisms. The CPM serves as a tool to detect potential cyber-attacks that affect the convergence of the consensus mechanism during ongoing…
Markov decision processes (MDPs) are widely used for modeling decision-making problems in robotics, automated control, and economics. Traditional MDPs assume that the decision maker (DM) knows all states and actions. However, this may not…
Markov decision processes (MDPs) are widely used for modeling decision-making problems in robotics, automated control, and economics. Traditional MDPs assume that the decision maker (DM) knows all states and actions. However, this may not…
Hyperproperties have shown to be a powerful tool for expressing and reasoning about information-flow security policies. In this paper, we investigate the problem of statistical model checking (SMC) for hyperproperties. Unlike exhaustive…
In model-based testing (MBT) we may have to deal with a non-deterministic model, e.g. because abstraction was applied, or because the software under test itself is non-deterministic. The same test case may then trigger multiple possible…
In this paper, we present a Bayesian method for statistical model checking (SMC) of probabilistic hyperproperties specified in the logic HyperPCTL* on discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs). While SMC of HyperPCTL* using sequential probability…
We consider the reinforcement learning problem for the constrained Markov decision process (CMDP), which plays a central role in satisfying safety or resource constraints in sequential learning and decision-making. In this problem, we are…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a well-established family of algorithms primarily used in Bayesian statistics to sample from a target distribution when direct sampling is challenging. Existing work on Bayesian decision trees uses MCMC.…
Penetration Testing is a methodology for assessing network security, by generating and executing possible hacking attacks. Doing so automatically allows for regular and systematic testing. A key question is how to generate the attacks. This…
Inference after model selection presents computational challenges when dealing with intractable conditional distributions. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a common method for sampling from these distributions, but its slow convergence…
The paper studies a probabilistic notion of causes in Markov chains that relies on the counterfactuality principle and the probability-raising property. This notion is motivated by the use of causes for monitoring purposes where the aim is…
Any search or sampling algorithm for solution of inverse problems needs guidance to be efficient. Many algorithms collect and apply information about the problem on the fly, and much improvement has been made in this way. However, as a…
We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…
Strongly Rayleigh distributions are natural generalizations of product and determinantal probability distributions and satisfy strongest form of negative dependence properties. We show that the "natural" Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) is…
Process Reward Models (PRMs) emerge as a promising approach for process supervision in mathematical reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs), which aim to identify and mitigate intermediate errors in the reasoning processes. However, the…
This paper considers a new approach to using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in contexts where one may adopt multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo. The underlying problem is to approximate expectations w.r.t. an underlying probability measure that is…
Any probabilistic model of a problem is based on assumptions which, if violated, invalidate the model. Users of probability based decision aids need to be alerted when cases arise that are not covered by the aid's model. Diagnosis of model…
We consider large-scale Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a risk measure of variability in cost, under the risk-aware MDPs paradigm. Previous studies showed that risk-aware MDPs, based on a minimax approach to handling risk, can be…