Related papers: What did the 2016 Brexit referendum data really sa…
The Brexit referendum on the United Kingdom membership of the European Union took place on 23 June 2016. On the basis of a 52-48 split, statements such as: the majority of the UK chose to leave the EU, or the British people have voted to…
On 23rd June 2016, 51.9% of British voters voted to leave the European Union, triggering a process and events that have led to the United Kingdom leaving the EU, an event that has become known as 'Brexit'. In this piece of research, we…
A desire to understand the decision of the UK to leave the European Union, Brexit, in the referendum of June 2016 has continued to occupy academics, the media and politicians. Using topological data analysis ball mapper we extract…
The purpose of this paper is to use the votes cast at the 2019 European elections held in United Kingdom to re-visit the analysis conducted subsequent to its 2016 European Union referendum vote. This exercise provides a staging post on…
Debates on an EU-leaving referendum arose in several member states after Brexit. We want to highlight how the exit of an additional country affects the power distribution in the Council of the European Union. We inspect the power indices of…
Since the result of the 2016 referendum, Brexit has been an unpredictable democratic adventure, the finale of which remains unclear. This year, in the final days of March, parliamentarians seized control of the order paper from the…
A mathematical analysis of the distribution of voting power in the Council of the European Union operating according to the Treaty of Lisbon is presented. We study the effects of Brexit on the voting power of the remaining members, measured…
Societal debates and political outcomes are subject to news and social media influences, which are in turn subject to commercial and other forces. Local press are in decline, creating a ``news gap''. Research shows a contrary relationship…
Brexit and its implications are an ongoing topic of interest since the Brexit referendum in 2016. In 2019 the House of commons held a number of "indicative" and "meaningful" votes as part of the Brexit approval process. The voting behaviour…
The British party system is known for its discipline and cohesion, but it remains wedged on one issue: European integration. We offer a methodology using social network analysis that considers the individual interactions of MPs in the…
In 2016, United Kingdom (UK) citizens voted to leave the European Union (EU), which was officially implemented in 2020. During this period, UK residents experienced a great deal of uncertainty around the UK's continued relationship with the…
Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we propose a generative model based on a stochastic differential equation that allows us to analyse…
Elections involving a very large voter population often lead to outcomes that surprise many. This is particularly important for the elections in which results affect the economy of a sizable population. A better prediction of the true…
We perform stochastic microsimulations of the dynamics of England and Wales population after the British referendum on EU membership, considering different possible outcomes. Employing available survey data, we model the demographics of the…
In times marked by political turbulence and uncertainty, as well as increasing divisiveness and hyperpartisanship, Governments need to use every tool at their disposal to understand and respond to the concerns of their citizens. We study…
Political polarisation on structured discussion platforms such as Reddit differs fundamentally from that on broadcast platforms such as Twitter/X, yet most prior work targets the latter. We present an end-to-end framework for measuring and…
Important game-changer economic events and transformations cause uncertainties that may affect investment decisions, capital flows, international trade, and macroeconomic variables. One such major transformation is Brexit, which refers to…
We applied the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to detect possible bubbles and crashes related to the Brexit/Bremain referendum scheduled for 23rd June 2016. Our implementation includes an enhanced model calibration using Genetic…
This work is produced by researchers at the Neuropolitics Research Lab, School of Social and Political Science and the School of Informatics at the University of Edinburgh. In this report we provide an analysis of the social media posts on…
Social media provides many opportunities to monitor and evaluate political phenomena such as referendums and elections. In this study, we propose a set of approaches to analyze long-running political events on social media with a real-world…