Related papers: Uncertainties in the Sunspot Numbers: Estimation a…
Context. In asteroseismology the pulsation mode frequencies of a star are the fundamental data that are compared to theoretical predictions to determine a star's interior physics. Recent significant advances in the numerical, theoretical…
The use of the spotless days to predict the future solar activity is here revised based on the new version of the sunspot number index with a 24-month filter. Data from Solar Cycle (SC) 10 are considered because from this solar cycle the…
Uniform random numbers, not Gaussian random numbers, should have been used with Standard Solar Models to estimate the effect on the neutrino flux of uncertainties in input data. The observed discrepancy is therefore probably quite smaller…
One-dimensional stellar evolution models have been successful at representing the structure and evolution of stars in diverse astrophysical contexts, but complications have been noted in the context of young, magnetically active stars, as…
Cosmological observables rely heavily on summary statistics such as two-point correlation functions. In many practical cases (e.g. the weak-lensing cosmic shear), those correlation functions are estimated from a finite, discrete sample of…
Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…
The study of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured spatially varying confounders has garnered increasing attention. However, a general framework for identifiability, which is critical for reliable causal inference from observational…
Through numerical simulations of boson-star head-on collisions, we explore the quality of binary initial data obtained from the superposition of single-star spacetimes. Our results demonstrate that evolutions starting from a plain…
We report progress on the ongoing recalibration of the Wolf sunspot number (SN) and Group sunspot number (GN) following the release of version 2.0 of SN in 2015. This report constitutes both an update of the efforts reported in the 2016…
Prediction of events is the challenge in many different disciplines, from meteorology to finance; the more this task is difficult, the more a system is {\it complex}. Nevertheless, even according to this restricted definition, a general…
The aim of the present study is to show the varying asymmetries during the decay of sunspot groups. The source of input data is the SoHO/MDI-Debrecen Database (SDD) sunspot catalog that contains the magnetic polarity data for time interval…
Many observational records critically rely on our ability to merge different (and not necessarily overlapping) observations into a single composite. We provide a novel and fully-traceable approach for doing so, which relies on a multi-scale…
The focus of this article is a re-count of Richard Carrington's original sunspot observations from his book drawings (Carrington,1863) by an observer from the World data Center-SILSO network, Thomas H. Teague(UK). This modern recount will…
Location data is inherently uncertain for many reasons including 1) imprecise location measurements, 2) obsolete observations that are often interpolated, and 3) deliberate obfuscation to preserve location privacy. What makes handling…
Both the current trends in technology such as smartphones, general mobile devices, stationary sensors, and satellites as well as a new user mentality of using this technology to voluntarily share enriched location information produces a…
This note deals with a multivariate stochastic approach to forecast the behaviour of a cyclic time series. Particular attention is devoted to the problem of the prediction of time behaviour of sunspot numbers for the current 23th cycle. The…
Recent precise observations of solar global parameters are used to calibrate an upgraded solar model which takes into account magnetic fields in the solar interior. Historical data about sunspot numbers (from 1500 to the present) and solar…
We perform a number of inter-related cosmographic fits to the legacy05 and gold06 supernova datasets. We pay particular attention to the influence of both statistical and systematic uncertainties, and also to the extent to which the choice…
Models for the formation and evolution of galaxies readily predict physical properties such as the star formation rates, metal enrichment histories, and, increasingly, gas and dust content of synthetic galaxies. Such predictions are…
The problem of change-point estimation is considered under a general framework where the data are generated by unknown stationary ergodic process distributions. In this context, the consistent estimation of the number of change-points is…