Related papers: Uncertainties in the Sunspot Numbers: Estimation a…
Mechanisms of the formation and stability of sunspots are among the longest-standing and intriguing puzzles of solar physics and astrophysics. Sunspots are controlled by subsurface dynamics hidden from direct observations. Recently,…
Our knowledge of the long-term evolution of solar activity and of its primary modulation, the 11-year cycle, largely depends on a single direct observational record: the visual sunspot counts that retrace the last 4 centuries, since the…
Critical points mark locations in the domain where the level-set topology of a scalar function undergoes fundamental changes and thus indicate potentially interesting features in the data. Established methods exist to locate and relate such…
Early telescopic observations of sunspots were conducted with instruments of relatively small aperture. These instruments also suffered from a higher level of scattered light, and the human eye served as a "detector". The eye's ability to…
We compare four sunspot-number data sequences against geomagnetic and terrestrial auroral observations. The comparisons are made for the original SIDC composite of Wolf-Zurich-International sunspot number [$R_{ISNv1}$], the group sunspot…
The recent paucity of sunspots and the delay in the expected start of Solar Cycle 24 have drawn attention to the challenges involved in predicting solar activity. Traditional models of the solar cycle usually require information about the…
Uncertainty quantification is a key part of astronomy and physics; scientific researchers attempt to model both statistical and systematic uncertainties in their data as best as possible, often using a Bayesian framework. Decisions might…
The incorporation of uncertainties to calculations of signal significance in planned experiments is an actual task. Several approaches to this problem are discussed. We present a procedure for taking into account the systematic uncertainty…
As the world increasingly relies on mathematical models for forecasts in different areas, effective communication of uncertainty in time series predictions is important for informed decision making. This study explores how users estimate…
The Sunspot Number, created by R.Wolf in 1849, provides a direct long-term record of solar activity from 1700 to the present. In spite of its central role in multiple studies of the solar dynamo and of the past Sun-Earth relations, it was…
Due to lack of scientific understanding, some mechanisms may be missing in mathematical modeling of complex phenomena in science and engineering. These mathematical models thus contain some uncertainties such as uncertain parameters. One…
In the last years there has been a considerable increase in the availability of continuous sensor measurements in a wide range of application domains, such as Location-Based Services (LBS), medical monitoring systems, manufacturing plants…
We study the visibility of sunspots and its influence on observed values of sunspot region parameters. We use Virtual Observatory tools provided by AstroGrid to analyse a sample of 6862 sunspot regions. By studying the distributions of…
We have reconstructed the sunspot group count, not by comparisons with other reconstructions and correcting those where they were deemed to be deficient, but by a re-assessment of original sources. The resulting series is a pure solar index…
The Schwabe (~11 yr) value for the annual sunspot number is sometimes uncritically applied to other measures of solar activity, direct and indirect, including the 10.7 cm radio flux, the inflow of galactic cosmic rays, solar flare…
Comparing paleoclimate time series is complicated by a variety of typical features, including irregular sampling, age model uncertainty (e.g., errors due to interpolation between radiocarbon sampling points) and time uncertainty…
In 1981, the production of the international Sunspot Number moved from the Z\"{u}rich Observatory to the Royal Observatory of Belgium, marking a very important transition in the history of the Sunspot Number. Those recent decades are…
As physics searches for invariants in observations, this paper looks for invariants of probabilistic observation without assuming physical structure. Structure emerges from the basic assumption of science that new information shall lead to…
In this note we consider coverage of confidence intervals calculated with and without systematic uncertainties. These calculations follow the prescription originally proposed by Cousins & Highland but here extended to account for different…
Recently Pop ({\it Solar Phys.} {\bf 276}, 351, 2012) identified a Laplace (or double exponential) distribution in the number of days with a given absolute value in the change over a day, in sunspot number, for days on which the sunspot…