Related papers: Uncertainties in the Sunspot Numbers: Estimation a…
This work applies a quantitative metric well-known to the data assimilation community to a new context in order to capture the relative representativeness of non-simultaneous or non-co-located observations and quantify how these…
Sunspot number (SSN) is an important - albeit nuanced - parameter that can be used as an indirect measure of solar activity. Predictions of upcoming active intervals, including the peak and timing of solar maximum can have important…
Observations of Type Ia supernovae used to map the expansion history of the Universe suffer from systematic uncertainties that need to be propagated into the estimates of cosmological parameters. We propose an iterative Monte-Carlo…
How can we draw trustworthy scientific conclusions? One criterion is that a study can be replicated by independent teams. While replication is critically important, it is arguably insufficient. If a study is biased for some reason and other…
It has long been thought that starspots are not present in the A and B stars because magnetic fields cannot be generated in stars with radiative envelopes. Space observations show that a considerable fraction of these stars vary in light…
Relative variations in the number of sunspots and sunspot groups in activity cycles have been analyzed based on data from the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station and international indices. The following regularities have been…
We analyze different data of the variation of the fine structure constant obtained with different methods to check their consistency.We test consistency using the modified Student test and confidence intervals. We split the data sets in…
The Sun exhibits a well-observed modulation in the number of spots on its disk over a period of about 11 years. From the dawn of modern observational astronomy sunspots have presented a challenge to understanding -- their quasi-periodic…
A discussion is presented of the manner in which uncertainties in parton distributions and related quantities are determined. One of the central problems is the criteria used to judge what variation of the parameters describing a set of…
An important challenge facing modern machine learning is how to rigorously quantify the uncertainty of model predictions. Conveying uncertainty is especially important when there are changes to the underlying data distribution that might…
Supernovae play a large but poorly understood role in our attempts to explain the evolution of the baryonic universe. Numerous observations throughout astronomy cannot be explained if we neglect their influence, yet our quantitative…
We consider the problem of subspace estimation in situations where the number of available snapshots and the observation dimension are comparable in magnitude. In this context, traditional subspace methods tend to fail because the…
We study various aspects of periodic points for random substitution subshifts. In order to do so, we introduce a new property for random substitutions called the disjoint images condition. We provide a procedure for determining the property…
Binary stars have been shown to have a substantial impact on the integrated light of stellar populations, particularly at low metallicity and early ages - conditions prevalent in the distant Universe. But the fraction of stars in stellar…
We consider the distribution of spacings between consecutive elements in subsets of Z/qZ where q is highly composite and the subsets are defined via the Chinese remainder theorem. We give a sufficient criterion for the spacing distribution…
The penumbra of a sunspot is a fascinating phenomenon featuring complex velocity and magnetic fields. It challenges both our understanding of radiative magneto-convection and our means to measure and derive the actual geometry of the…
We have studied the relationship between three different versions of the sunspot number (Group, International and American sunspot number) and the number of active days (i.e., the number of days with spots on the solar disk). We have…
Observational astronomy is plagued with selection effects that must be taken into account when interpreting data from astronomical surveys. Because of the physical limitations of observing time and instrument sensitivity, datasets are…
The measurements with the background estimation from an off-zone are widely used in astrophysics, accelerator physics and other areas. Usually, the expected number of the background events in the off-zone and in the on-zone is known with a…
It is commonly required to detect change points in sequences of random variables. In the most difficult setting of this problem, change detection must be performed sequentially with new observations being constantly received over time.…