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The paper studies large sample asymptotic properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) for the parameter of a continuous time Markov chain, observed in white noise. Using the method of weak convergence of likelihoods due to…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-18 Pavel Chigansky

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-07 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Kirstin Strokorb , Jonathan A. Tawn , Adam Butler

We study the local (in time) expansion of a continuous-time process and its conditional moments, including the process' characteristic function. The expansions are conducted by using the properties of the (time-extended) Ito signature, a…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-10 Federico M. Bandi , Roberto Renò , Sara Svaluto-Ferro

Let $\{X(\mathbf{t}):\mathbf{t}=(t_1, t_2, \ldots, t_d)\in[0,\infty)^d\}$ be a centered stationary Gaussian field with almost surely continuous sample paths, unit variance and correlation function $r$ satisfying conditions $r(\mathbf{t})<1$…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-14 Natalia Soja-Kukieła

Let $\{X(t),t\ge0\}$ be a centered Gaussian process and let $\gamma$ be a non-negative constant. In this paper we study the asymptotics of $P\{\underset{t\in [0,\mathcal{T}/u^\gamma]}\sup X(t)>u\}$ as $u\to\infty$, with $\mathcal{T}$ an…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-11-26 Krzysztof Dȩbicki , Enkelejd Hashorva , Lanpeng Ji

We establish asymptotic properties of $M$-estimators, defined in terms of a contrast function and observations from a continuous-time locally stationary process. Using the stationary approximation of the sequence, $\theta$-weak dependence,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-11 Bennet Ströh

Recently, the complete left tail asymptotic for the density of the {\it martingale limit} of the classical Galton-Watson process has been derived. The derivation is based on the properties of a special function (whose inverse Fourier…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Anton A Kutsenko

The theory of ``Markov-up'' processes is being developed. This is a new class of stochastic processes with ``partial'' markovian features; it could also be called ``one-sided Markov''. Such a behavior may be found in the real world and in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-01 D. O. Kalikaeva

We consider random temporal graphs, a version of the classical Erd\H{o}s--R\'enyi random graph G(n,p) where additionally, each edge has a distinct random time stamp, and connectivity is constrained to sequences of edges with increasing time…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-21 Nicolas Broutin , Nina Kamčev , Gabor Lugosi

In 1998, Molloy and Reed showed that, under suitable conditions, if a sequence of degree sequences converges to a probability distribution $D$, then the size of the largest component in corresponding $n$-vertex random graph is…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-12 Bela Bollobas , Oliver Riordan

With any max-stable random process $\eta$ on $\mathcal{X}=\mathbb{Z}^d$ or $\mathbb{R}^d$, we associate a random tessellation of the parameter space $\mathcal{X}$. The construction relies on the Poisson point process representation of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Clément Dombry , Z. Kabluchko

This thesis is concerned with the asymptotic behavior of solutions of stochastic $p$-Laplace equations driven by non-autonomous forcing on $\mathbb{R}^n$. Two cases are studied, with additive and multiplicative noise respectively. Estimates…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2014-08-05 Andrew Krause

We consider real-valued branching random walks and prove a large deviation result for the position of the rightmost particle. The position of the rightmost particle is the maximum of a collection of a random number of dependent random…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-06-27 Nina Gantert , Thomas Höfelsauer

We study the $k$-largest eigenvalues of heavy-tailed sample covariance matrices of the form $\bX\bX^\T$ in an asymptotic framework, where the dimension of the data and the sample size tend to infinity. To this end, we assume that the rows…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-13 Richard A. Davis , Oliver Pfaffel

We obtain the posterior distribution of a random process conditioned on observing the empirical frequencies of a finite sample path. We find under a rather broad assumption on the "dependence structure" of the process, {\em c.f.}…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-02 Wenqing Hu , Hong Qian

We characterize the value function and the optimal stopping time for a large class of optimal stopping problems where the underlying process to be stopped is a fairly general Markov process. The main result is inspired by recent findings…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-03 Sören Christensen , Paavo Salminen , Bao Quoc Ta

For a positive self-similar Markov process, X, we construct a local time for the random set, $\Theta$, of times where the process reaches its past supremum. Using this local time we describe an exit system for the excursions of X out of its…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-12-10 Loïc Chaumont , Andreas Kyprianou , Juan Carlos Pardo , Víctor Rivero

Consider a heavy-tailed branching process (denoted by $Z_{n}$) in random environments, under the condition which infers that $\mathbb{E}\log m(\xi_{0})=\infty$. We show that (1) there exists no proper $c_{n}$ such that $\{Z_{n}/c_{n}\}$ has…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-11-20 Wenming Hong , Xiaoyue Zhang

The maximum entropy ansatz, as it is often invoked in the context of time-series analysis, suggests the selection of a power spectrum which is consistent with autocorrelation data and corresponds to a random process least predictable from…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-07-19 Tryphon T. Georgiou

Let $X_{1,n} \leq .... \leq X_{n,n}$ be the order statistics associated with a sample $X_{1}, ...., X_{n}$ whose pertaining distribution function (% \textit{df}) is $F$. We are concerned with the functional asymptotic behaviour of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-19 Modou Ngom , Gane Samb Lo