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This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…

Geophysics · Physics 2014-08-26 Didier Sornette , Ivan Osorio

Although our existing one-dimensional (1D) model provides a successful quantitative description of rupture events, a 1D description is somewhat limited. We therefore derive a two-dimensional (2D) model which allows us to investigate…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-12-20 Naum I. Gershenzon , Thomas Skinner

The long-term erosion of steep landscapes is punctuated by dramatic erosional events that can remove significant amount of sediments within a time-scale shorter than a seismic cycle. However, the role of such large erosional events on…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-12-02 L. Jeandet Ribes , N. Cubas , H. S. Bhat , P. Steer

The imminent WHEN earthquake predictions are based on the correlation between geomagnetic quakes and the incoming minimum (or maximum) of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the incoming earthquake is for the…

Classical Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 S. Cht. Mavrodiev , L. Pekevski

We analyze 21 aftershock sequences of California to test for evidence of space-time diffusion. Aftershock diffusion may result from stress diffusion and is also predicted by any mechanism of stress weakening. Here, we test an alternative…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-26 Agnes Helmstetter , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette

The classification of earthquakes in main shocks and aftershocks by a method recently proposed by M. Baiesi and M. Paczuski allows to the generation of a complex network composed of clusters that group the most correlated events. The…

Instrumentation and Detectors · Physics 2007-06-11 Oscar Sotolongo-Costa , R. Gamez , A. Posadas , F. Luzon

Continuous GPS and broadband seismic monitoring have revealed a variety of disparate slip patterns especially in shallow dipping subduction zones, among which regular earthquakes, slow slip events and silent quakes1,2. Slow slip events are…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-05-13 Christophe Voisin , Jean-Robert Grasso , Eric Larose , François Renard

In line of the intermediate-term monitoring of seismic activity aimed at prediction of the world largest earthquakes the seismic dynamics of the Earth's lithosphere is analysed as a single whole, which is the ultimate scale of the complex…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Leontina L. Romashkova , Vladimir G. Kossobokov

We investigate the relevance of {\sl self-organized criticality (SOC)} models in previously published empirical datasets, which includes statistical observations in astrophysics, geophysics, biophysics, sociophysics, and informatics. We…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-05-05 Markus J. Aschwanden , Felix Scholkmann

In Geosciences a class of phenomena that is widely studied given its real impact on human life are the tectonic faults slip. These landslides have different ways to manifest, ranging from aseismic events of slow displacement (slow slips) to…

Geophysics · Physics 2023-04-18 José Augusto Proença Maia Devienne

Disordered materials under an imposed forcing can display creep and aging effects, accompanied by intermittent, spatially heterogeneous dynamics. We propose a unifying microscopic description of these phenomena, based on the notion that as…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2024-09-27 Daniel J. Korchinski , Dor Shohat , Yoav Lahini , Matthieu Wyart

Trapped particles bursts have long been observed to be frequently occurred several hours before earthquakes, especially for strong earthquakes, from several space experiments during past decades. However, the validity of earthquake origin…

Research on the earthquake occurrences using a statistical methodology based on point processes has mainly focused on the data featuring earthquake catalogs which ignores the effect of environmental variables. In this paper, we introduce…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-26 Achmad Choiruddin , Aisah , Finola Trisnisa , Nur Iriawan

We have studied interoccurrence time distributions by analyzing the synthetic and three natural catalogs of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Southern California Earthquake Data Center (SCEDC), and Taiwan Central Weather Bureau…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-08-21 Tomohiro Hasumi , Chien-chih Chen , Takuma Akimoto , Yoji Aizawa

Numerous systems ranging from deformation of materials to earthquakes exhibit bursty dynamics, which consist of a sequence of events with a broad event size distribution. Very often these events are observed to be temporally correlated or…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-12-05 Sanja Janićević , Lasse Laurson , Knut Jørgen Måløy , Stéphane Santucci , Mikko J. Alava

Earthquakes and solar flares are phenomena involving huge and rapid releases of energy characterized by complex temporal occurrence. By analysing available experimental catalogs, we show that the stochastic processes underlying these…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 L. de Arcangelis , C. Godano , E. Lippiello , M. Nicodemi

The Gutenberg-Richter power law distribution of earthquake sizes is one of the most famous example illustrating self-similarity. It is well-known that the Gutenberg-Richter distribution has to be modified for large seismic moments, due to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-12-07 D. Sornette , A. Sornette

The seismicity, which took place at the Methoni seismogenic area, in the time period of 20/2/2008 - 10/4/2008, is analyzed in terms of its location, time of occurrence and magnitude. Furthermore, it is compared to the tidal (T=14 days, T=1…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-05-15 Constantine Thanassoulas

Seasonal patterns associated with stress modulation, as evidenced by earthquake occurrence, have been detected in regions characterized by present day mountain building and glacial retreat in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Himalaya and the…

Geophysics · Physics 2017-03-01 Antonella Peresan , Francesco Cocetta , Giuliano F. Panza

Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…

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