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The unified scaling law for earthquakes, proposed by Bak, Christensen, Danon and Scanlon, is shown to hold worldwide, as well as for areas as diverse as Japan, New Zealand, Spain or New Madrid. The scaling functions that account for the…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-10 Alvaro Corral

The epidemic-type aftershock sequence model (ETAS) is a simple stochastic process modeling seismicity, based on the two best-established empirical laws, the Omori law (power law decay ~1/t^{1+\theta} of seismicity after an earthquake) and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 A. Helmstetter , D. Sornette

In the last thirty years, the Northern and Central Apennines (Italy) have been affected by three main destructive seismic sequences: the 1997 Colfiorito (three events $M_L > 5.5$), the 2009 L'Aquila (one event $M_L > 5.5$), and the…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-01-09 Marion Baques , Piero Poli , Michele Fondriest

The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-09-07 Qing Yao , Jingfang Fan , Jun Meng , Valerio Lucarini , Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen , Kim Christensen , Xiaosong Chen

As an object of study, we chose the global activity of strong earthquakes (M > 7). The subject of the study is the waiting time for the next strong earthquake. The purpose of the study is to compare two distributions of waiting time, one of…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-09-02 A. V. Guglielmi , O. D. Zotov

A major part of the seismicity striking the Mediterranean area and other regions worldwide is hosted in carbonate rocks. Recent examples are the destructive earthquakes of L'Aquila Mw 6.1 2009 and Norcia Mw 6.5 2016 in Central Italy.…

Atomic clock technology is advancing rapidly, now reaching stabilities of $\Delta f/f \sim 10^{-18}$, which corresponds to resolving $1$ cm in equivalent geoid height over an integration timescale of about 7 hours. At this level of…

We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-07-22 E. Ben-Naim , E. G. Daub , P. A. Johnson

We present a multifractal analysis of Mount St. Helens seismic activity during 1980-2002. The seismic time distribution is studied in relation to the eruptive activity, mainly marked by the 1980 major explosive eruptions and by the…

In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise --- intermittent avalanche-like relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes --- the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 Jörn Davidsen , Marco Baiesi

The site effect is usually associated with local geological conditions, which increase or decrease the level of shaking compared with standard attenuation relations. We made an attempt to see in the macroseismic data of Italy some other…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-05-19 G. Molchan , T. Kronrod , G. F. Panza

Hysteresis loops and the associated avalanche statistics of spin systems, such as the random-field Ising and Edwards-Anderson spin-glass models, have been extensively studied. A particular focus has been on self-organized criticality,…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2019-01-11 John Ferre , Amin Barzegar , Helmut G. Katzgraber , Richard Scalettar

We show that the distribution of waiting times between earthquakes occurring in California obeys a simple unified scaling law valid from tens of seconds to tens of years, see Eq. (1) and Fig. 4. The short time clustering, commonly referred…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Per Bak , Kim Christensen , Leon Danon , Tim Scanlon

We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…

Geophysics · Physics 2009-10-28 M. J. Werner , A. Helmstetter , D. D. Jackson , Y. Y. Kagan

On 5 July 2014, an eruptive fissure opened on the eastern flank of Etna volcano (Italy) at ~3.000 m a.s.l. Strombolian activity and lava effusion occurred simultaneously at two neighbouring vents. In the following weeks, eruptive activity…

Earthquake aftershock identification is closely related to the question "Are aftershocks different from the rest of earthquakes?" We give a positive answer to this question and introduce a general statistical procedure for clustering…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-03-01 Ilya Zaliapin , Andrei Gabrielov , Vladimir Keilis-Borok , Henry Wong

Self-similarity indicates that large and small earthquakes share the same physics, where all variables scale with rupture length $L$. Here I show that rupture tip acceleration during the start of dynamic rupture (break-out phase) is also…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-11-05 Stefan Nielsen

During inter-eruption periods, magma pressurization yields subtle changes of the elastic properties of volcanic edifices. We use the reproducibility properties of the ambient seismic noise recorded on the Piton de la Fournaise volcano to…

Characteristic versus critical features of earthquakes are studied on the basis of the Olami-Feder-Christensen model. It is found that the local recurrence-time distribution exhibits a sharp $\delta$-function-like peak corresponding to…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-13 Takeshi Kotani , Hajime Yoshino , Hikaru Kawamura

Ruptures of the largest earthquakes can last between a few seconds and several minutes. An early assessment of the final earthquake size is essential for early warning systems. However, it is still unclear when in the rupture history this…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-07-08 Jannes Münchmeyer , Ulf Leser , Frederik Tilmann