Related papers: Granger Independent Martingale Processes
We consider a class of semi-Markov processes (SMP) such that the embedded discrete time Markov chain may be non-homogeneous. The corresponding augmented processes are represented as semi-martingales using stochastic integral equation…
Some classes of increment martingales, and the corresponding localized classes, are studied. An increment martingale is indexed by the real line and its increment processes are martingales. We focus primarily on the behavior as time goes to…
In Financial Signal Processing, multiple time series such as financial indicators, stock prices and exchange rates are strongly coupled due to their dependence on the latent state of the market and therefore they are required to be jointly…
We study Markov-modulated affine processes (abbreviated MMAPs), a class of Markov processes that are created from affine processes by allowing some of their coefficients to be a function of an exogenous Markov process. MMAPs allow for…
We present sufficient conditions, in terms of the jumping kernels, for two large classes of conservative Markov processes of pure-jump type to be purely discontinuous martingales with finite second moment. As an application, we establish…
In this paper, we present a kernel-based, multi-task Gaussian Process (GP) model for approximating the underlying function of an individual's mobility state using a time-inhomogeneous Markov Process with two states: moves and pauses. Our…
This thesis is devoted to the study of affine processes and their applications in financial mathematics. In the first part we consider the theory of time-inhomogeneous affine processes on general state spaces. We present a concise setup for…
We define dynamic treatment regimes and associated potential outcomes for data described by marked point processes (MPPs). These definitions motivate MPP analogues of the commonly used consistency, exchangeability, and positivity conditions…
In the marked temporal point processes (MTPP), a core problem is to parameterize the conditional joint PDF (probability distribution function) $p^*(m,t)$ for inter-event time $t$ and mark $m$, conditioned on the history. The majority of…
Interval Markov Decision Processes (IMDPs) are finite-state uncertain Markov models, where the transition probabilities belong to intervals. Recently, there has been a surge of research on employing IMDPs as abstractions of stochastic…
Parametric conditional copula models allow the copula parameters to vary with a set of covariates according to an unknown calibration function. Flexible Bayesian inference for the calibration function of a bivariate conditional copula is…
We consider the pricing of derivatives written on accumulated marks, such as weather derivatives or aggregate loss claims, using a self-exciting marked point process. The jump intensity mean-reverts between events and increases at jump…
We develop a regression based primal-dual martingale approach for solving finite time horizon MDPs with general state and action space. As a result, our method allows for the construction of tight upper and lower biased approximations of…
For nearly every major stock market there exist equity and implied volatility indices. These play important roles within finance: be it as a benchmark, a measure of general uncertainty or a way of investing or hedging. It is well known in…
We prove that the variance swap rate (fair strike) equals the price of a co-terminal European-style contract when the underlying is an exponential Markov process, time-changed by an arbitrary continuous stochastic clock, which has arbitrary…
We introduce graphical time series models for the analysis of dynamic relationships among variables in multivariate time series. The modelling approach is based on the notion of strong Granger causality and can be applied to time series…
In this paper, we study the composition of two independent GCPs which we call the iterated generalized counting process (IGCP). Its distributional properties such as the transition probabilities, probability generating function, state…
Graphical Transformation Models (GTMs) are introduced as a novel approach to effectively model multivariate data with intricate marginals and complex dependency structures semiparametrically, while maintaining interpretability through the…
Multivariate time series exhibit two types of dependence: across variables and across time points. Vine copulas are graphical models for the dependence and can conveniently capture both types of dependence in the same model. We derive the…
Time homogeneous polynomial processes are Markov processes whose moments can be calculated easily through matrix exponentials. In this work, we develop a notion of time inhomogeneous polynomial processes where the coeffiecients of the…