Related papers: Granger Independent Martingale Processes
Copulas have been popular to model dependence for multivariate distributions, but have not been used much in modelling temporal dependence of univariate time series. This paper demonstrates some difficulties with using copulas even for…
Splitting-based time integration approaches such as fractional steps, alternating direction implicit, operator splitting, and locally one-dimensional methods partition the system of interest into components and solve individual components…
Stricker's theorem states that a Gaussian process is a semimartingale in its natural filtration if and only if it is the sum of an independent increment Gaussian process and a Gaussian process of finite variation, see [1983, Z. Wahrsch.…
We examine an analytic variational inference scheme for the Gaussian Process State Space Model (GPSSM) - a probabilistic model for system identification and time-series modelling. Our approach performs variational inference over both the…
Non-conjugate Gaussian processes (NCGPs) define a flexible probabilistic framework to model categorical, ordinal and continuous data, and are widely used in practice. However, exact inference in NCGPs is prohibitively expensive for large…
We introduce and study a multiparameter version of the generalized counting process (GCP), where there is a possibility of finitely many arrivals simultaneously. We call it the multiparameter GCP. In a particular case, it is uniquely…
Learning the influence graph G of a high-dimensional Markov process is central to many application domains, including social networks, neuroscience, and financial risk analysis. However, in many of these applications, future states of the…
This paper presents a multinomial method for option pricing when the underlying asset follows an exponential Variance Gamma process. The continuous time Variance Gamma process is approximated by a discrete time Markov chain with the same…
We consider the pricing of derivatives in a setting with trading restrictions, but without any probabilistic assumptions on the underlying model, in discrete and continuous time. In particular, we assume that European put or call options…
We define a copula process which describes the dependencies between arbitrarily many random variables independently of their marginal distributions. As an example, we develop a stochastic volatility model, Gaussian Copula Process Volatility…
We consider plain vanilla European options written on an underlying asset that follows a continuous time semi-Markov multiplicative process. We derive a formula and a renewal type equation for the martingale option price. In the case in…
Stationary and ergodic time series can be constructed using an s-vine decomposition based on sets of bivariate copula functions. The extension of such processes to infinite copula sequences is considered and shown to yield a rich class of…
We propose a method to bound the expectation of the supremum of the price process in stochastic volatility models. It can be applied, for example, to the rough Bergomi model, avoiding the need to discuss finiteness of higher moments. Our…
We introduce a simple model for equity index derivatives. The model generalizes well known L\`evy Normal Tempered Stable processes (e.g. NIG and VG) with time dependent parameters. It accurately fits Equity index implied volatility surfaces…
In the copula-based approach to univariate time series modeling, the finite dimensional temporal dependence of a stationary time series is captured by a copula. Recent studies investigate how copula-based time series models can be…
We propose a method of approximating multivariate Gaussian probabilities using dynamic programming. We show that solving the optimization problem associated with a class of discrete-time finite horizon Markov decision processes with…
The method of cointegration in regression analysis is based on an assumption of stationary increments. Stationary increments with fixed time lag are called integration I(d). A class of regression models where cointegration works was…
This project attempts to address the problem of asset pricing in a financial market, where the interest rates and volatilities exhibit regime switching. This is an extension of the Black-Scholes model. Studies of Markov-modulated regime…
For multivariate spatial Gaussian process (GP) models, customary specifications of cross-covariance functions do not exploit relational inter-variable graphs to ensure process-level conditional independence among the variables. This is…
In this paper we introduce non-decreasing jump processes with independent and time non-homogeneous increments. Although they are not L\'evy processes, they somehow generalize subordinators in the sense that their Laplace exponents are…