Related papers: Granger Independent Martingale Processes
Multitask Gaussian processes (MTGP) are the Gaussian process (GP) framework's solution for multioutput regression problems in which the $T$ elements of the regressors cannot be considered conditionally independent given the observations.…
Inspired by Jang et al. (2022), we propose a Granger causality-in-the-mean test for bivariate $k-$Markov stationary processes based on a recently introduced class of non-linear models, i.e., vine copula models. By means of a simulation…
We introduce a scalable approach to Gaussian process inference that combines spatio-temporal filtering with natural gradient variational inference, resulting in a non-conjugate GP method for multivariate data that scales linearly with…
Inference, prediction and control of complex dynamical systems from time series is important in many areas, including financial markets, power grid management, climate and weather modeling, or molecular dynamics. The analysis of such highly…
We introduce, in continuous time, an axiomatic approach to assign to any financial position a dynamic ask (resp. bid) price process. Taking into account both transaction costs and liquidity risk this leads to the convexity (resp. concavity)…
Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) are a class of continuous-time Markov processes that were recently used to develop a new class of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. However, the implementation of the processes is…
Comparison results for Markov processes w.r.t. function class induced (integral) stochastic orders have a long history. The most general results so far for this problem have been obtained based on the theory of evolution systems on Banach…
An intriguing new class of piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) has recently been proposed as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In order to facilitate the application to a larger class of problems, we propose a…
In the last years, many authors studied a class of continuous time semi-Markov processes obtained by time-changing Markov processes by hitting times of independent subordinators. Such processes are governed by integro-differential…
This paper proposes a general framework of multi-armed bandit (MAB) processes by introducing a type of restrictions on the switches among arms evolving in continuous time. The Gittins index process is constructed for any single arm subject…
A continuous-time Markov process $X$ can be conditioned to be in a given state at a fixed time $T > 0$ using Doob's $h$-transform. This transform requires the typically intractable transition density of $X$. The effect of the $h$-transform…
Copula-based time series models can model univariate and stationary time series in a flexible way by decomposing the joint distribution of consecutive observations into a copula and the stationary distribution. Implicitly this approach…
In this paper we study time-inhomogeneous affine processes beyond the common assumption of stochastic continuity. In this setting times of jumps can be both inaccessible and predictable. To this end we develop a general theory of finite…
We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…
We discuss martingales, detrending data, and the efficient market hypothesis for stochastic processes x(t) with arbitrary diffusion coefficients D(x,t). Beginning with x-independent drift coefficients R(t) we show that Martingale stochastic…
Increasingly volatile electricity prices make simultaneous scheduling optimization desirable for production processes and their energy systems. Simultaneous scheduling needs to account for both process dynamics and binary on/off-decisions…
When two Markov operators commute, it suggests that we can couple two copies of one of the corresponding processes. We explicitly construct a number of couplings of this type for a commuting family of Markov processes on the set of…
An implicit mass-matrix penalization (IMMP) of Hamiltonian dynamics is proposed, and associated dynamical integrators, as well as sampling Monte-Carlo schemes, are analyzed for systems with multiple time scales. The penalization is based on…
We describe an abstract control-theoretic framework in which the validity of the dynamic programming principle can be established in continuous time by a verification of a small number of structural properties. As an application we treat…
We study discretizations of polynomial processes using finite state Markov processes satisfying suitable moment matching conditions. The states of these Markov processes together with their transition probabilities can be interpreted as…