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In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-19 Damian Eduardo Taranto , Giacomo Bormetti , Fabrizio Lillo

We consider a sequential decision-making setting where, at every round $t$, a market maker posts a bid price $B_t$ and an ask price $A_t$ to an incoming trader (the taker) with a private valuation for one unit of some asset. If the trader's…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi , Tommaso Cesari , Roberto Colomboni , Luigi Foscari , Vinayak Pathak

In this paper we develop a deep learning method for optimal stopping problems which directly learns the optimal stopping rule from Monte Carlo samples. As such, it is broadly applicable in situations where the underlying randomness can…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-11-02 Sebastian Becker , Patrick Cheridito , Arnulf Jentzen

Pricing financial or real options with arbitrary payoffs in regime-switching models is an important problem in finance. Mathematically, it is to solve, under certain standard assumptions, a general form of optimal stopping problems in…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-09-11 Masahiko Egami , Rusudan Kevkhishvili

We examine fixed-price mechanisms in bilateral trade through the lens of regret minimization. Our main results are twofold. (i) For independent values, a near-optimal $\widetilde{\Theta}(T^{2/3})$ tight bound for $\textsf{Global Budget…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Houshuang Chen , Yaonan Jin , Pinyan Lu , Chihao Zhang

Despite the fact that an intraday market price distribution is not normal, the random walk model of price behaviour is as important for the understanding of basic principles of the market as the pendulum model is a starting point of many…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2019-08-14 Oleh Danyliv , Bruce Bland , Alexandre Argenson

We study an online market-making problem in which a learner sequentially posts bid and ask prices for a single asset while interacting with traders holding private valuations. Unlike existing online learning formulations that assume fully…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Davide Maran , Marcello Restelli

Estimating market impact and transaction costs of large trades (metaorders) is a very important topic in finance. However, using models of price and trade based on public market data provide average price trajectories which are…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-12-04 Manuel Naviglio , Giacomo Bormetti , Francesco Campigli , German Rodikov , Fabrizio Lillo

We study an optimal liquidation problem with multiplicative price impact in which the trend of the asset's price is an unobservable Bernoulli random variable. The investor aims at selling over an infinite time-horizon a fixed amount of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-28 Felix Dammann , Giorgio Ferrari

We consider a dynamic pricing problem where customer response to the current price is impacted by the customer price expectation, aka reference price. We study a simple and novel reference price mechanism where reference price is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Shipra Agrawal , Wei Tang

During a random search, resetting the searcher's position from time to time to the starting point often reduces the mean completion time of the process. Although many different resetting models have been studied over the past ten years,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-09-15 Gabriel Mercado-Vásquez , Denis Boyer , Satya N. Majumdar

Devising models of the limit order book that realistically reproduce the market response to exogenous trades is extremely challenging and fundamental in order to test trading strategies. We propose a novel explainable model for small tick…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-24 Adele Ravagnani , Fabrizio Lillo

We study a financial market where the risky asset is modelled by a geometric It\^o-L\'{e}vy process, with a singular drift term. This can for example model a situation where the asset price is partially controlled by a company which…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-24 Nacira Agram , Bernt Øksendal

Continuous time models in the theory of real options give explicit formulas for optimal exercise strategies when options are simple and the price of an underlying asset follows a geometric Brownian motion. This paper suggests a general,…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2008-12-02 Svetlana Boyarchenko , Sergei Levendorskii

Consider a trade market with one seller and multiple buyers. The seller aims to sell an indivisible item and maximize their revenue. This paper focuses on a simple and popular mechanism--the fixed-price mechanism. Unlike the standard…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Zhikang Fan , Weiran Shen

Bilateral trade models the task of intermediating between two strategic agents, a seller and a buyer, willing to trade a good for which they hold private valuations. We study this problem from the perspective of a broker, in a regret…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Simone Di Gregorio , Paul Dütting , Federico Fusco , Chris Schwiegelshohn

We develop a theoretical trading conditioning model subject to price volatility and return information in terms of market psychological behavior, based on analytical transaction volume-price probability wave distributions in which we use…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2010-02-09 Leilei Shi , Yiwen Wang , Ding Chen , Liyan Han , Yan Piao , Chengling Gou

Using simple particle models of limit order markets, we argue that mid-term over-diffusive price behaviour is inherent to the very nature of these markets. Several rules for rate changes are considered. We obtain analytical results for…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Damien Challet , Robin Stinchcombe

We study the problem of optimally managing an inventory with unknown demand trend. Our formulation leads to a stochastic control problem under partial observation, in which a Brownian motion with non-observable drift can be singularly…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-11-28 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari , Neofytos Rodosthenous

In this paper we study a continuous time stochastic inventory model for a commodity traded in the spot market and whose supply purchase is affected by price and demand uncertainty. A firm aims at meeting a random demand of the commodity at…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-12 Maria B. Chiarolla , Giorgio Ferrari , Gabriele Stabile