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We present an exact solution for one-dimensional overdamped dynamics near a hard wall, allowing us to connect steady-state distributions under confinement with the extreme value statistics of unconfined stochastic processes. This mapping…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-11-05 Thibaut Arnoulx de Pirey

We characterize the finite variation property for stationary increment mixed moving averages driven by infinitely divisible random measures. Such processes include fractional and moving average processes driven by Levy processes, and also…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-29 Andreas Basse-O'Connor , Jan Rosiński

Invariant manifolds provide the geometric structures for describing and understanding dynamics of nonlinear systems. The theory of invariant manifolds for both finite and infinite dimensional autonomous deterministic systems, and for…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Jinqiao Duan , Kening Lu , Bjoern Schmalfuss

In this paper we study coupled fully non-local equations, where a linear non-local operator jointly acts on the time and space variables. We establish existence and uniqueness of the solution. A maximum principle is proved and used to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-24 Giacomo Ascione , Enrico Scalas , Bruno Toaldo , Lorenzo Torricelli

Extreme value analysis is an essential methodology in the study of rare and extreme events, which hold significant interest in various fields, particularly in the context of environmental sciences. Models that employ the exceedances of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-16 Lorenzo Dell'Oro , Carlo Gaetan

Typically, in the dynamical theory of extremal events, the function that gauges the intensity of a phenomenon is assumed to be convex and maximal, or singular, at a single, or at most a finite collection of points in phase--space. In this…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-09-21 Giorgio Mantica , Luca Perotti

Multivariate extreme-value analysis is concerned with the extremes in a multivariate random sample, that is, points of which at least some components have exceptionally large values. Mathematical theory suggests the use of max-stable models…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-04-03 Johan Segers

In this paper some general theory is presented for locally stationary processes based on the stationary approximation and the stationary derivative. Laws of large numbers, central limit theorems as well as deterministic and stochastic bias…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Rainer Dahlhaus , Stefan Richter , Wei Biao Wu

This paper unifies and extends results on a class of multivariate Extreme Value (EV) models studied by Hougaard, Crowder, and Tawn. In these models both unconditional and conditional distributions are EV, and all lower-dimensional marginals…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-09-30 Anne-Laure Fougères , John P. Nolan , Holger Rootzén

The distribution of block maxima of sequences of independent and identically-distributed random variables is used to model extreme values in many disciplines. The traditional extreme value (EV) theory derives a closed-form expression for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-27 Marco Marani , Enrico Zorzetto

We study nonautonomous discrete dynamical systems with randomly perturbed trajectories. We suppose that such a system is generated by a sequence of continuous maps which converges uniformly to a map $f$. We give conditions, under which a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-08-13 Leszek Szała

Predicting extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging due to a limited understanding of their statistical properties. This study numerically and theoretically investigates the statistical properties of infinite-modal maps…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-07 Masaki Nakagawa

We give a brief account of application of extreme value theory in dynamical systems by using perturbation techniques associated to the transfer operator. We will apply it to the baker's map and we will get a precise formula for the extremal…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-03-04 Jason Atnip , Nicolai Haydn , Sandro Vaienti

We study nonstationary dynamical systems formed by sequential concatenation of nonuniformly expanding maps with a uniformly expanding first return map. Assuming a polynomially decaying upper bound on the tails of first return times that is…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-09-22 A. Korepanov , J. Leppänen

We establish almost sure invariance principles, a strong form of approximation by Brownian motion, for non-stationary time-series arising as observations on dynamical systems. Our examples include observations on sequential expanding maps,…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2014-06-18 N. Haydn , M. Nicol , A. Tôrôk , S. Vaienti

As a useful and elegant tool of extreme value theory, the study of point processes on a metric space is important and necessary for the analyses of heavy-tailed functional data. This paper focuses on the definition and properties of such…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-24 Yuwei Zhao

Maximum likelihood estimations for the parameters of extreme value distributions are discussed in this paper using fixed point iteration. The commonly used numerical approach for addressing this problem is the Newton-Raphson approach which…

Computation · Statistics 2009-02-03 Tewfik Kernane , Zohrh A. Raizah

Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-06 Benjamin Köhler , Anton J. Heckens , Thomas Guhr

We provide formulas to compute the coefficients entering the affine scaling needed to get a non-degenerate function for the asymptotic distribution of the maxima of some kind of observable computed along the orbit of a randomly perturbed…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-07-26 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Pierre Guiraud , Sandro Vaienti

It is well known that the distribution of extreme values of strictly stationary sequences differ from those of independent and identically distributed sequences in that extremal clustering may occur. Here we consider non-stationary but…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-23 Graeme Auld , Ioannis Papastathopoulos