Related papers: Extreme Value Laws for sequences of intermittent m…
Extreme value analysis for time series is often based on the block maxima method, in particular for environmental applications. In the classical univariate case, the latter is based on fitting an extreme-value distribution to the sample of…
This work employs variational techniques to revisit and expand the construction and analysis of extreme value processes. These techniques permit a novel study of spatial statistics of the location of minimizing events. We develop integral…
In this paper we characterize the mixing properties in the advection of passive tracers by exploiting the extreme value theory for dynamical systems. With respect to classical techniques directly related to the Poincar\'e recurrences…
We prove a vector-valued almost sure invariance principle for some classes of time dependent non-uniformly distance expanding dynamical systems. The models we have in mind are certain sequential versions of the smooth non-uniformly distance…
This paper is devoted to the prediction problem in extreme value theory. Our main result is an explicit expression of the regular conditional distribution of a max-stable (or max-infinitely divisible) process $\{\eta(t)\}_{t\in T}$ given…
In this work, we deal with extreme value theory in the context of continued fractions using techniques from probability theory, ergodic theory and real analysis. We give an upper bound for the rate of convergence in the Doeblin-Iosifescu…
We apply the theory of continuous time random walks to study some aspects of the extreme value problem applied to financial time series. We focus our attention on extreme times, specifically the mean exit time and the mean first-passage…
In this paper we prove the existence of Extreme Value Laws for dynamical systems perturbed by instrument-like-error, also called observational noise. An orbit perturbed with observational noise mimics the behavior of an instrumentally…
This paper presents a new model for characterising temporal dependence in exceedances above a threshold. The model is based on the class of trawl processes, which are stationary, infinitely divisible stochastic processes. The model for…
We derive exact expressions for the finite-time statistics of extrema (maximum and minimum) of the spatial displacement and the fluctuating entropy flow of biased random walks. Our approach captures key features of extreme events in…
We develop a rigorous theory of external influences on finite discrete dynamical systems, going beyond the perturbation paradigm, in that the external influence need not be a small contribution. Indeed, the covariance condition can be…
We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to…
We obtain error terms on the rate of convergence to Extreme Value Laws for a general class of weakly dependent stochastic processes. The dependence of the error terms on the `time' and `length' scales is very explicit. Specialising to data…
These notes are based on lectures delivered by G. Schehr at the XVIth School on Fundamental Problems in Statistical Physics (FPSP), held in Oropa (Italy) from 30 June to 11 July 2025. After a brief introduction to extreme value statistics…
We study the ergodic behaviour of a discrete-time process $X$ which is a Markov chain in a stationary random environment. The laws of $X_t$ are shown to converge to a limiting law in (weighted) total variation distance as $t\to\infty$.…
We study the extremes for a class of a symmetric stable random fields with long range dependence. We prove functional extremal theorems both in the space of sup measures and in the space of cadlag functions of several variables. The limits…
In this paper we introduce new notions of local extremality for finite and infinite systems of closed sets and establish the corresponding extremal principles for them called here rated extremal principles. These developments are in the…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…
In this note, we obtain verifiable sufficient conditions for the extreme value distribution for a certain class of skew product extensions of non-uniformly hyperbolic base maps. We show that these conditions, formulated in terms of the…
In this paper we perform an analytical and numerical study of Extreme Value distributions in discrete dynamical systems that have a singular measure. Using the block maxima approach described in Faranda et al. [2011] we show that,…