Related papers: Upper tails for arithmetic progressions in a rando…

We analyze the stationary tail of a fixed-point equation arising in branching processes with state-independent immigration, when both immigration and offspring distributions have heavy tails with boundary index one. We prove that \[ P(X >…

Let $\{X, X_{n}; n \geq 1\}$ be a sequence of i.i.d. non-degenerate real-valued random variables with $\mathbb{E}X^{2} < \infty$. Let $S_{n} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} X_{i}$, $n \geq 1$. Let $g(\cdot): ~[0, \infty) \rightarrow [0, \infty)$ be a…

We consider maximum rooted tree extension counts in random graphs, i.e., we consider M_n = \max_v X_v where X_v counts the number of copies of a given tree in G_{n,p} rooted at vertex v. We determine the asymptotics of M_n when the random…

The extreme value dependence of regularly varying stationary time series can be described by the spectral tail process. Drees, Segers and Warchol [Extremes 18(3): 369--402, 2015] proposed estimators of the marginal distributions of this…

Building on the techniques from the breakthrough paper of Harel, Mousset and Samotij, which solved the upper tail problem for cliques, we compute the asymptotics of the upper tail for the number of induced copies of the 4-cycle in the…

Motivated by problems on random differences in Szemer\'{e}di's theorem and on large deviations for arithmetic progressions in random sets, we prove upper bounds on the Gaussian width of point sets that are formed by the image of the…

We consider asymptotics for the maximum of a modulated random walk whose increments $\xi_n^{X_n}$ are heavy-tailed. Of particular interest is the case where the modulating process $X$ is regenerative. Here we study also the maximum of the…

An infinite convergent sum of independent and identically distributed random variables discounted by a multiplicative random walk is called perpetuity, because of a possible actuarial application. We give three disjoint groups of sufficient…

The paper provides a description of the large deviation behavior for the Euclidean norm of projections of $\ell_p^n$-balls to high-dimensional random subspaces. More precisely, for each integer $n\geq 1$, let $k_n\in\{1,\ldots,n-1\}$,…

We give an elementary probabilistic proof of Veraverbeke's Theorem for the asymptotic distribution of the maximum of a random walk with negative drift and heavy-tailed increments. The proof gives insight into the principle that the maximum…

Accurate estimation of tail probabilities of projections of high-dimensional probability measures is of relevance in high-dimensional statistics and asymptotic geometric analysis. Whereas large deviation principles identify the asymptotic…

Let $X=\sum_{k=1}^\infty X_k \beta^{-k}$ be the base-$\beta$ expansion of a continuous random variable $X$ on the unit interval where $\beta$ is the golden ratio. We study the asymptotic distribution and convergence rate of the scaled…

Consider a subcritical branching random walk $\{Z_k\}_{k\geq 0}$ with offspring distribution $\{p_k\}_{k\geq 0}$ and step size $X$. Let $M_n$ denote the rightmost position reached by $\{Z_k\}_{k\geq 0}$ up to generation $n$, and define $M…

We study the asymptotic probability that a random walk with heavy-tailed increments crosses a high boundary on a random time interval. We use new techniques to extend results of Asmussen [Ann. Appl. Probab. 8 (1998) 354-374] to completely…

Motivated by metastability in the zero-range process, we consider i.i.d.\ random variables with values in $\N_0$ and Weibull-like (stretched exponential) law $\mathbb P(X_i =k) = c \exp( - k^\alpha)$, $\alpha \in (0,1)$. We condition on…

We improve unconditional estimates on $\Delta_k(x)$, the remainder term of the generalised divisor function, for large $k$. In particular, we show that $\Delta_k(x) \ll x^{1 - 1.889k^{-2/3}}$ for all sufficiently large fixed $k$.

Let X^{(k)}(t) = (X_1(t), ..., X_k(t)) denote a k-vector of i.i.d. random variables, each taking the values 1 or 0 with respective probabilities p and 1-p. As a process indexed by non-negative t, $X^{(k)}(t)$ is constructed--following…

We obtain an explicit formula for the variance of the number of $k$-peaks in a uniformly random permutation. This is then used to obtain an asymptotic formula for the variance of the length of longest $k$-alternating subsequence in random…

The task for a general and useful classification of the tail behaviors of probability distributions still has no satisfactory solution. Due to lack of information outside the range of the data the tails of the distribution should be…

The event of large losses plays an important role in credit risk. As these large losses are typically rare, and portfolios usually consist of a large number of positions, large deviation theory is the natural tool to analyze the tail…