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We focus on the partial sum $S_{n}=X_{1}+\cdots+X_{n}$ of the critical branching process with immigration $\{X_{n}\}$, when the offspring $\xi$ is regularly varying with index $\nu+1$ and the immigration $\eta$ is regularly varying with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Jiayan Guo , Wenming Hong

Despite the successes of probabilistic models based on passing noise through neural networks, recent work has identified that such methods often fail to capture tail behavior accurately, unless the tails of the base distribution are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-16 Feynman Liang , Liam Hodgkinson , Michael W. Mahoney

Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F.…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ph . Barbe , W. P. McCormick , C. Zhang

What is the probability that the number of triangles in $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$, the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph with edge density $p$, is at least twice its mean? Writing it as $\exp[- r(n,p)]$, already the order of the rate function…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-04-12 Eyal Lubetzky , Yufei Zhao

We study the large-time asymptotic of renewal-reward processes with a heavy-tailed waiting time distribution. It is known that the heavy tail of the distribution produces an extremely slow dynamics, resulting in a singular large deviation…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2022-01-05 Hiroshi Horii , Raphael Lefevere , Takahiro Nemoto

Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Nina Gantert , Joscha Prochno , Philipp Tuchel

We study arithmetic progressions in primes with common differences as small as possible. Tao and Ziegler showed that, for any $k \geq 3$ and $N$ large, there exist non-trivial $k$-term arithmetic progressions in (any positive density subset…

Number Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-17 Xuancheng Shao

We prove large deviation results for the position of the rightmost particle, denoted by $M_n$, in a one-dimensional branching random walk in a case when Cram\'er's condition is not satisfied. More precisely we consider step size…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-17 Piotr Dyszewski , Nina Gantert , Thomas Höfelsauer

Let $AP_k=\{a,a+d,\ldots,a+(k-1)d\}$ be an arithmetic progression. For $\epsilon>0$ we call a set $AP_k(\epsilon)=\{x_0,\ldots,x_{k-1}\}$ an $\epsilon$-approximate arithmetic progression if for some $a$ and $d$, $|x_i-(a+id)|<\epsilon d$…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2021-09-15 Vojtech Rödl , Marcelo Sales

Let $X=(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ be a vector of i.i.d. random variables where $X_i$'s take values over $\mathbb{N}$. The purpose of this paper is to study the number of weakly increasing subsequences of $X$ of a given length $k$, and the number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-15 Ümit Işlak , Alperen Y. Özdemir

We establish sharp large deviation asymptotics for the maximum order statistic of independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables, valid for all Borel subsets of the right tail. This result yields exact decay rates for…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-09 José M. Zapata

Let $M_n= \fsu X1n$ be a sum of independent random variables such that $ X_k\leq 1$, $\E X_k =0$ and $\E X_k^2=\s_k^2$ for all $k$. Hoeffding 1963, Theorem 3, proved that $$\P{M_n \geq nt}\leq H^n(t,p),\quad H(t,p)= \bgl(1+qt/p\bgr)^{p +qt}…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-29 Vidmantas Bentkus , Tomas Juškevičius

We consider certain Fibonacci-like sequences $(X_n)_{n\geq 0}$ perturbed with a random noise. Our main result is that $\frac{1}{X_n}\sum_{k=0}^{n-1}X_k$ converges in distribution, as $n$ goes to infinity, to a random variable $W$ with…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-09-18 Alexander Roitershtein , Zhirou Zhou

We calculate the large deviations for the length of the longest alternating subsequence and for the length of the longest increasing subsequence in a uniformly random permutation that avoids a pattern of length three. We treat all six…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-09-04 Ross G. Pinsky

For sequences of non-lattice weakly dependent random variables, we obtain asymptotic expansions for Large Deviation Principles. These expansions, commonly referred to as strong large deviation results, are in the spirit of Edgeworth…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-10 Kasun Fernando , Pratima Hebbar

We study deviation of U-statistics when samples have heavy-tailed distribution so the kernel of the U-statistic does not have bounded exponential moments at any positive point. We obtain an exponential upper bound for the tail of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-30 Milad Bakhshizadeh

We study largest singular values of large random matrices, each with mean of a fixed rank $K$. Our main result is a limit theorem as the number of rows and columns approach infinity, while their ratio approaches a positive constant. It…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-02 Wlodek Bryc , Jack W. Silverstein

Large deviation behavior of the largest eigenvalue $\lambda_1$ of Gaussian networks (Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$ with i.i.d. Gaussian weights on the edges) has been the topic of considerable interest. Recently in…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-17 Shirshendu Ganguly , Kyeongsik Nam

The busy period for a queue is cast as the area swept under the random walk until it first returns to zero, $B$. Encompassing non-i.i.d. increments, the large-deviations asymptotics of $B$ is addressed, under the assumption that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-16 Ken R. Duffy , Sean P. Meyn

Let $X_1,\dots,X_n$ be independent normal random variables with $X_i\sim N(\mu_i,\sigma_i^2)$, and set $Z=\prod_{i=1}^n X_i$. We derive asymptotic approximations for the right tail probability $\mathbb{P}(Z>x)$ as $x\to\infty$. When at…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-08 Džiugas Chvoinikov , Jonas Šiaulys