Related papers: Generating Random Earthquake Events for PTHA
Systems with a long-term stationary state that possess as a spatio-temporally fluctuation quantity $\beta$ can be described by a superposition of several statistics, a "super statistics". We consider first, the Gamma, log-normal and…
Offshore wind power (OWP) exhibits significant fluctuations under typhoon conditions, posing substantial challenges to the secure operation of power systems. Accurate forecasting of OWP is therefore essential. However, the inherent scarcity…
Many recent studies have tried to determine the influence of geometry of faults in earthquake mechanics. In this paper, we suggest a new interpretation of the effect of geometry on the stress on a fault. Starting from the representation…
Simulating dynamic rupture propagation is challenging due to the uncertainties involved in the underlying physics of fault slip, stress conditions, and frictional properties of the fault. A trial and error approach is often used to…
We extend the construction principle of phase-type (PH) distributions to allow for inhomogeneous transition rates and show that this naturally leads to direct probabilistic descriptions of certain transformations of PH distributions. In…
This paper provides a detailed introductory description of Subset Simulation, an advanced stochastic simulation method for estimation of small probabilities of rare failure events. A simple and intuitive derivation of the method is given…
The roughness of the subduction interface is thought to influence seismogenic behavior in subduction zones, but a detailed understanding of how such roughness affects the state of stress along the subduction megathrust is still debated.…
We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global catalogs: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. These distributions are required to develop the number test for forecasts of future seismic…
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no…
We present the "condensation" method that exploits the heterogeneity of the probability distribution functions (PDF) of event locations to improve the spatial information content of seismic catalogs. The method reduces the size of seismic…
As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of…
In this article, we present a predictive model for the amplitude of impulse waves generated by the collapse of a granular column into a water layer. The model, which combines the spreading dynamics of the grains and the wave hydrodynamics…
A non-perturbative random-matrix theory is applied to the transmission of a monochromatic scalar wave through a disordered waveguide. The probability distributions of the transmittances T_{mn} and T_n=\sum_m T_{mn} of an incident mode n are…
Slip at a frictional interface occurs via intermittent events. Understanding how these events are nucleated, can propagate, or stop spontaneously remains a challenge, central to earthquake science and tribology. In the absence of disorder,…
This paper proposes a probabilistic model of subspaces based on the probabilistic principal component analysis (PCA). Given a sample of vectors in the embedding space -- commonly known as a snapshot matrix -- this method uses quantities…
Standard supervised learning procedures are validated against a test set that is assumed to have come from the same distribution as the training data. However, in many problems, the test data may have come from a different distribution. We…
Projective measurements of a single two-level quantum mechanical system (a qubit) evolving under a time-independent Hamiltonian produce a probability distribution that is periodic in the evolution time. The period of this distribution is an…
The Neo-Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) method reliably and realistically simulates the suite of earthquake ground motions that may impact civil populations as well as their heritage buildings. The modeling technique is…
We establish large deviation formulas for linear statistics on the $N$ transmission eigenvalues $\{T_i\}$ of a chaotic cavity, in the framework of Random Matrix Theory. Given any linear statistics of interest $A=\sum_{i=1}^N a(T_i)$, the…
The Makran subduction zone, an approximate 1000 km section of the Eurasian-Arabian plate, is located offshore of Southern Iran and Pakistan. In 1945, the Makran subduction zone (MSZ) generated a tsunamigenic earthquake with a magnitude of…