Related papers: Generating Random Earthquake Events for PTHA
The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…
The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…
The reliable statistical characterization of the spatial and temporal properties of large earthquakes occurrence is one of the most debated issues in seismic hazard assessment, due to the unavoidably limited observations from past events.…
We present a new method of data clustering applied to earthquake catalogs, with the goal of reconstructing the seismically active part of fault networks. We first use an original method to separate clustered events from uncorrelated…
We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function.…
Research on the earthquake occurrences using a statistical methodology based on point processes has mainly focused on the data featuring earthquake catalogs which ignores the effect of environmental variables. In this paper, we introduce…
Simple models for ruptures along a heterogeneous earthquake fault zone are studied, focussing on the interplay between the roles of disorder and dynamical effects. A class of models are found to operate naturally at a critical point whose…
Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…
Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's…
We introduce a Self-affine Asperity Model (SAM) for the seismicity that mimics the fault friction by means of two fractional Brownian profiles (fBm) that slide one over the other. An earthquake occurs when there is an overlap of the two…
Epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) is commonly addressed through a logic-tree framework that combines weighted alternative models to characterize the range of plausible hazard outcomes. Implicit in this…
The life of a tsunami is usually divided into three phases: the generation (tsunami source), the propagation and the inundation. Each phase is complex and often described separately. A brief description of each phase is given. Model…
Particle splitting methods are considered for the estimation of rare events. The probability of interest is that a Markov process first enters a set $B$ before another set $A$, and it is assumed that this probability satisfies a large…
We present a general mathematical framework for trajectory stratification for simulating rare events. Trajectory stratification involves decomposing trajectories of the underlying process into fragments limited to restricted regions of…
This paper is an attempt for arguing the possibility for short time when, where and how Earthquakes prediction. The local when Earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or…
Although the sequential tsunami scenario detection framework was validated in our previous work, several tasks remain to be resolved from a practical point of view. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the previous tsunami…
We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
By their very nature, rare event probabilities are expensive to compute; they are also delicate to estimate as their value strongly depends on distributional assumptions on the model parameters. Hence, understanding the sensitivity of the…
The main reason for the generation of tsunamis is the deformation of the bottom of the ocean caused by an underwater earthquake. Usually, only the vertical bottom motion is taken into account while the horizontal co-seismic displacements…
We introduce a theory of probability in $\lambda$-rings designed to efficiently describe random variables valued in multisets of complex numbers, varieties over a field, or other similar enriched settings. A key role is played by the…