Related papers: Generating Random Earthquake Events for PTHA
The lack of offshore seismic data caused uncertainties associated to understating the behavior of future tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ). Future tsunamigenic events in the MSZ may trigger significant near-field…
In environmental science applications, extreme events frequently exhibit a complex spatio-temporal structure, which is difficult to describe flexibly and estimate in a computationally efficient way using state-of-art parametric…
From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic…
Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed enough to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes…
We demonstrate the efficacy of a Bayesian statistical inversion framework for reconstructing the likely characteristics of large pre-instrumentation earthquakes from historical records of tsunami observations. Our framework is designed and…
We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…
Predicting tsunami impacts at remote coasts largely relies on tsunami en-route measurements in an open ocean. In this work, these measurements are used to generate instant tsunami predictions in deep water and near the coast. The…
In subduction zones, seismic slip at shallow crustal depths can lead to the generation of tsunamis. Large slip displacements during tsunamogenic earthquakes are attributed to the low coseismic shear strength of the fluid-saturated and…
Hazardous tsunamis are known to be generated predominantly at subduction zones. However, the 2018 Mw 7.5 Sulawesi (Indonesia) earthquake on a strike-slip fault generated a tsunami that devastated the city of Palu. The mechanism by which…
Rank-ordering statistics provides a perspective on the rare, largest elements of a population, whereas the statistics of cumulative distributions are dominated by the more numerous small events. The exponent of a power law distribution can…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from…
Usual inversion for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data incorporates subjective elements. Noisy and possibly insufficient data also results in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions. Here we employ…
Long-term slow-slip events (LSSEs) usually occur on the deep, shallow parts of subducting plates and have substantial relation with adjacent megathrust fault motion. Conventional techniques of quantifying slow earthquake frictional features…
Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…
Seismological and geodetic observations of fault zones reveal diverse slip dynamics, scaling, and statistical laws. Existing mechanisms explain some but not all of these behaviors. We show that incorporating an off-fault damage…
The distribution of inter-occurrence time between seismic events is a quantity of great interest in seismic risk assessment. We evaluate this distribution for different models of earthquakes occurrence and follow two distinct approaches:…
Aftershocks of the 2012 Off-Coast of Sumatra Earthquake Sequence exhibit a complex and diffuse spatial distribution. The first-order complexity in aftershock distribution is clear and well beyond the influence of typical earthquake location…
In this paper, we propose a stochastic dynamic model for earthquake rupture and suggest that the Langevin equation of frictions may be used for interpreting the slip distributions of rupture processes in earthquakes. The steady-state…
Indonesia is one of the world's most densely populated regions and lies among the epicenters of Earth's greatest natural hazards. Effectively reducing the disaster potential of these hazards through resource allocation and preparedness…