Related papers: Generating Random Earthquake Events for PTHA

We introduce a simple model for the size distribution of avalanches based on the idea that the front of an avalanche can be described by a directed random walk. The model captures some of the qualitative features of earthquakes, avalanches…

Megathrusts host Earth's largest earthquakes. Understanding the physical conditions controlling their rupture dynamics is critical for assessing seismic and tsunami hazards. These earthquakes often display complex rupture dynamics,…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

We construct a classification model that predicts if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold will take place at a given location in a time range 30-180 days from a given moment of time. A common approach is to use expert…

Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…

Many spatial models exhibit locality structures that effectively reduce their intrinsic dimensionality, enabling efficient approximation and sampling of high-dimensional distributions. However, existing approximation techniques primarily…

We introduce a novel class of bivariate common-shock discrete phase-type (CDPH) distributions to describe dependencies in loss modeling, with an emphasis on those induced by common shocks. By constructing two jointly evolving terminating…

Given a random quantum state of multiple distinguishable or indistinguishable particles, we provide an effective method, rooted in symplectic geometry, to compute the joint probability distribution of the eigenvalues of its one-body reduced…

Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and many more. Despite the intrinsic differences between these…

The local when earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic quakes and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal…

Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses…

The most adopted definition of landslide hazard combines spatial information about landslide location (susceptibility), threat (intensity), and frequency (return period). Only the first two elements are usually considered and estimated when…

Rare event simulation and rare event probability estimation are important tasks within the analysis of systems subject to uncertainty and randomness. Simultaneously, accurately estimating rare event probabilities is an inherently difficult…

This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…

We study the structural similarity of earthquake networks constructed from seismic catalogs of different geographical regions. A hierarchical clustering of underlying undirected earthquake networks is shown using Jensen-Shannon divergence…

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to…

We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the…

We compute the statistical distribution of index-1 saddles surrounding a given local minimum of the $p$-spin energy landscape, as a function of their distance to the minimum in configuration space and of the energy of the latter. We…

Large earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) are expected to trigger widespread soil liquefaction that could disrupt transportation systems across the U.S. Pacific Northwest. However, past regional assessments have relied on…