Related papers: Generating Random Earthquake Events for PTHA
Given a distribution of earthquake-induced seafloor elevations, we present a method to compute the probability of the resulting tsunamis reaching a certain size on shore. Instead of sampling, the proposed method relies on optimization to…
After the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis came unprecedented to the scientific community the role of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) in tsunami-prone areas came to the fore. The Makran subduction zone (MSZ) is a hazardous…
In this paper we describe a general framework for incorporating tidal uncertainty into probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment and propose the Pattern Method and a simpler special case called the $\Delta t$ Method as effective approaches.…
An efficient method for inferring Manning's $n$ coefficients using water surface elevation data was presented in Sraj et al. (2014) focusing on a test case based on data collected during the $T\=ohoku$ earthquake and tsunami. Polynomial…
In Geosciences a class of phenomena that is widely studied given its real impact on human life are the tectonic faults slip. These landslides have different ways to manifest, ranging from aseismic events of slow displacement (slow slips) to…
We propose and compare methods for the analysis of extreme events in complex systems governed by PDEs that involve random parameters, in situations where we are interested in quantifying the probability that a scalar function of the…
The present study is devoted to the problem of tsunami wave generation. The main goal of this work is two-fold. First of all, we propose a simple and computationally inexpensive model for the description of the sea bed displacement during…
Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…
Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a…
In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), the exceedance probability of a ground-motion intensity measure (IM) is typically evaluated. However, in recent years, dynamic response analyses using ground-motion time histories as input…
Near-field tsunami early warning in the Cascadia Subduction Zone is limited by sparse offshore observations. We investigate whether a hypothetical network of 175 ocean-bottom pressure sensors can support real-time Bayesian inference of the…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
While the propagation of tsunamis is well understood and well simulated by numerical models, there are still a number of unanswered questions related to the generation of tsunamis or the subsequent inundation. We review some of the basic…
The distribution of seismic moment is of capital interest to evaluate earthquake hazard, in particular regarding the most extreme events. We make use of likelihood-ratio tests to compare the simple Gutenberg-Richter power-law distribution…
Traditional models of slow slip events (SSEs) often oversimplify fault geometry, yet imaging studies show that real subduction faults are segmented and complex. We investigate how fault interactions influence slip behavior using 3D…
Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective…
The present article is devoted to the influence of sediment layers on the process of tsunami generation. The main scope here is to demonstrate and especially quantify the effect of sedimentation on vertical displacements of the seabed due…
One of the most important aspects in tsunami studies is the wave behavior when it approaches the coast. Information on physical parameters that characterize waves is often limited because of the diffilculties in achieving accurate…
Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions, the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete…
Based on recent results in extreme value theory, we use a new technique for the statistical estimation of distribution tails. Specifically, we use the Gnedenko-Pickands-Balkema-de Haan theorem, which gives a natural limit law for…