Related papers: Frequentistic approximations to Bayesian prevision…

Let $\{\xi(k), k \in \mathbb{Z} \}$ be a stationary sequence of random variables and let $\{S_n, n \in \mathbb{N}_+ \}$ be a transient random walk in the domain of attraction of a stable law. In the previous work \cite{Nicolas_Ahmad}, under…

Exchangeability is a central notion in statistics and probability theory. The assumption that an infinite sequence of data points is exchangeable is at the core of Bayesian statistics. However, finite exchangeability as a statistical…

The problem of assigning probability distributions which objectively reflect the prior information available about experiments is one of the major stumbling blocks in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this paper the method of…

Let $\mu$ be a probability measure on $\text{GL}_d(\mathbb R)$ and denote by $S_n:= g_n \cdots g_1$ the associated random matrix product, where $g_j$'s are i.i.d.'s with law $\mu$. We study statistical properties of random variables of the…

The article studies the almost surely asymptotics of extreme values $\bar{\xi}_n = \max_{1\leq i \leq n} \xi_i$, where $ \xi , \xi_1 , \xi_2 , \ldots$ are discrete identically distributed random variables. One of the main results on this…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Non-uniform estimates are obtained for Poisson, compound Poisson, translated Poisson, negative binomial and binomial approximations to sums of of m-dependent integer-valued random variables. Estimates for Wasserstein metric also follow…

In this paper we propose tight upper and lower bounds for the Wasserstein distance between any two {{univariate continuous distributions}} with probability densities $p_1$ and $p_2$ having nested supports. These explicit bounds are…

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

The Bayesian posterior minimizes the "inferential risk" which itself bounds the "predictive risk". This bound is tight when the likelihood and prior are well-specified. However since misspecification induces a gap, the Bayesian posterior…

Let $K_n$ denote the number of distinct values among the first $n$ terms of an infinite exchangeable sequence of random variables $(X_1,X_2,\ldots)$. We prove for $n=3$ that the extreme points of the convex set of all possible laws of $K_3$…

Two new information-theoretic methods are introduced for establishing Poisson approximation inequalities. First, using only elementary information-theoretic techniques it is shown that, when $S_n=\sum_{i=1}^nX_i$ is the sum of the (possibly…

In this work, the probability of an event under some joint distribution is bounded by measuring it with the product of the marginals instead (which is typically easier to analyze) together with a measure of the dependence between the two…

We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…

We determine the joint limiting distribution of adjacent spacings around a central, intermediate, or an extreme order statistic $X_{k:n}$ of a random sample of size $n$ from a continuous distribution $F$. For central and intermediate cases,…

Suppose $X_1,\dots, X_n$ is a random sample from a bounded and decreasing density $f_0$ on $[0,\infty)$. We are interested in estimating such $f_0$, with special interest in $f_0(0)$. This problem is encountered in various statistical…

Dependent nonparametric processes extend distributions over measures, such as the Dirichlet process and the beta process, to give distributions over collections of measures, typically indexed by values in some covariate space. Such models…

In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a…

Let $\Gamma$ be an $n\times m$ matrix with independent standard Gaussian entries and let $G_m = \Gamma(B_1^m)$ be the associated Gaussian Gluskin polytope (equivalently, a random $n$-dimensional quotient of $\ell_1^m$). In the regime $m =…

Let $S$ be a Polish space and $(X_n:n\geq1)$ an exchangeable sequence of $S$-valued random variables. Let $\alpha_n(\cdot)=P(X_{n+1}\in \cdot\mid X_1,\...,X_n)$ be the predictive measure and $\alpha$ a random probability measure on $S$ such…