Related papers: Frequentistic approximations to Bayesian prevision…

We present some new and explicit error bounds for the approximation of distributions. The approximation error is quantified by the maximal density ratio of the distribution $Q$ to be approximated and its proxy $P$. This non-symmetric…

We generalise the known fact that for binomial $X_{n,k} \sim \mathrm{Bin}(n, k/n)$ one has $\inf_{k>1,n} \mathrm{P}(X_{n,k} \geq k) \geq \lim_{k \to 1+}\mathrm{P}(X_{2,k} \geq k) = 1/4$ to cover probabilities of exceeding a constant shift…

Given $n$ independent random marked $d$-vectors $X_i$ with a common density, define the measure $\nu_n = \sum_i \xi_i $, where $\xi_i$ is a measure (not necessarily a point measure) determined by the (suitably rescaled) set of points near…

The proposal and study of dependent prior processes has been a major research focus in the recent Bayesian nonparametric literature. In this paper, we introduce a flexible class of dependent nonparametric priors, investigate their…

Rigorously quantifying the information in high contrast imaging data is important for informing follow-up strategies to confirm the substellar nature of a point source, constraining theoretical models of planet-disk interactions, and…

Let $\Omega$ be a countable infinite product $\Omega^\N$ of copies of the same probability space $\Omega_1$, and let ${\Xi_n}$ be the sequence of the coordinate projection functions from $\Omega$ to $\Omega_1$. Let $\Psi$ be a possibly…

Consider the Gaussian sequence model under the additional assumption that a fixed fraction of the means is known. We study the problem of variance estimation from a frequentist Bayesian perspective. The maximum likelihood estimator (MLE)…

Corresponding to $n$ independent non-negative random variables $X_1,...,X_n$, are values $M_1,...,M_n$, where each $M_i$ is the expected value of the maximum of $n$ independent copies of $X_i$. We obtain an upper bound to the expected value…

An exchangeable pair approach is commonly taken in the normal and non-normal approximation using Stein's method. It has been successfully used to identify the limiting distribution and provide an error of approximation. However, when the…

Let $\xi_i$, $i=1,...,n$, and $\eta_j$, $j=1,...,m$ be iid p-stable respectively q-stable random variables, $1<p<q<2$. We prove estimates for $\Ex_{\Omega_1} \Ex_{\Omega_2}\max_{i,j}\abs{a_{ij}\xi_i(\omega_1)\eta_j(\omega_2)}$ in terms of…

Possible parameter values in a random sampling model are shown by definition to have uniform base-rate prior probabilities. This allows a frequentist posterior probability distribution to be calculated for such possible parameter values…

Bayesian supervised predictive classifiers, hypothesis testing, and parametric estimation under Partition Exchangeability are implemented. The two classifiers presented are the marginal classifier (that assumes test data is i.i.d.) next to…

In this paper, we characterize compatibility of distributions and probability measures on a measurable space. For a set of indices $\mathcal J$, we say that the tuples of probability measures $(Q_i)_{i\in \mathcal J} $ and distributions…

A length-$n$ random sequence $X_1,\ldots,X_n$ in a space $S$ is finitely exchangeable if its distribution is invariant under all $n!$ permutations of coordinates. Given $N > n$, we study the extendibility problem: when is it the case that…

The inverse relation between mutual information (MI) and Bayesian error is sharpened by deriving finite sequences of upper and lower bounds on MI in terms of the minimum probability of error (MPE) and related Bayesian quantities. The well…

Let $(S_n)_{n \geq 0}$ be a transient random walk in the domain of attraction of a stable law and let $(\xi(s))_{s \in \mathbb{Z}}$ be a stationary sequence of random variables. In a previous work, under conditions of type $D(u_n)$ and…

We develop a framework for the operationalization of models and parameters by combining de Finetti's representation theorem with a conditional form of Sanov's theorem. This synthesis, the tilted de Finetti theorem, shows that conditioning…

We give an elementary proof of the fact that a binomial random variable $X$ with parameters $n$ and $0.29/n \le p < 1$ with probability at least $1/4$ strictly exceeds its expectation. We also show that for $1/n \le p < 1 - 1/n$, $X$…

In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…

The probability of observing $x_t$ at time $t$, given past observations $x_1...x_{t-1}$ can be computed with Bayes' rule if the true generating distribution $\mu$ of the sequences $x_1x_2x_3...$ is known. If $\mu$ is unknown, but known to…