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In this paper we test the random walk hypothesis on the high frequency dataset of the bid--ask Deutschemark/US dollar exchange rate quotes registered by the inter-bank Reuters network over the period October 1, 1992 to September 30, 1993.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 R. Baviera , D. Vergni , A. Vulpiani

The financial industry has undergone a significant transition from the London Interbank Offered Rates (LIBORs) to Risk Free Rates (RFRs) such as, e.g., the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Cash Rate (AONIA) in…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-18 Yining Ding , Ruyi Liu , Marek Rutkowski

Interbank contagion can theoretically exacerbate losses in a financial system and lead to additional cascade defaults during downturn. In this paper we produce default analysis using both regression and neural network models to verify…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-29 Riccardo Doyle

It is commonly accepted that Commodities futures and forward prices, in principle, agree under some simplifying assumptions. One of the most relevant assumptions is the absence of counterparty risk. Indeed, due to margining, futures have…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2009-01-09 Damiano Brigo , Kyriakos Chourdakis , Imane Bakkar

Quanto options allow the buyer to exchange the foreign currency payoff into the domestic currency at a fixed exchange rate. We investigate quanto options with multiple underlying assets valued in different foreign currencies each with a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-11-26 Boris Ter-Avanesov , Gunter A. Meissner

We set up a structural model to study credit risk for a portfolio containing several or many credit contracts. The model is based on a jump--diffusion process for the risk factors, i.e. for the company assets. We also include correlations…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Rudi Schäfer , Markus Sjölin , Andreas Sundin , Michal Wolanski , Thomas Guhr

A new framework for pricing the European currency option is developed in the case where the spot exchange rate fellows a time-changed fractional Brownian motion. An analytic formula for pricing European foreign currency option is proposed…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-08 Foad Shokrollahi

Trading activities in financial systems create various channels through which systemic risk can propagate. An important contagion channel is financial fire sales, where a bank failure causes asset prices to fall due to asset liquidation,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-07-08 Tomokatsu Onaga , Fabio Caccioli , Teruyoshi Kobayashi

Motivated by the interplay between structural and reduced form credit models, we propose to model the firm value process as a time-changed Brownian motion that may include jumps and stochastic volatility effects, and to study the first…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2009-04-16 T. R. Hurd

Credit Valuation Adjustment captures the difference in the value of derivative contracts when the counterparty default probability is taken into account. However, in the context of a network of contracts, the default probability of a direct…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-29 Irena Barjašić , Stefano Battiston , Vinko Zlatić

We compute the value of a variance swap when the underlying is modeled as a Markov process time changed by a L\'{e}vy subordinator. In this framework, the underlying may exhibit jumps with a state-dependent L\'{e}vy measure, local…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-03 Matthew Lorig , Oriol Lozano Carbasse , Rafael Mendoza-Arriaga

We study the impact of exchange rate volatility on cost efficiency and market structure in a cross-section of banks that have non-trivial exposures to foreign currency (FX) operations. We use unique data on quarterly revaluations of FX…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-13 Mikhail Mamonov , Christopher Parmeter , Artem Prokhorov

This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2015-12-23 Demian Pouzo , Ignacio Presno

We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-19 Daniel Kapp , Marco Vega

Credit risk in the China's bond market has become increasingly evident, creating a progressively escalating risk of default for credit bond investors. Given the current incomplete and inaccurate bond information disclosure, timely tracking…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-06-09 Kai Ren

In this work we want to provide a general principle to evaluate the CVA (Credit Value Adjustment) for a vulnerable option, that is an option subject to some default event, concerning the solvability of the issuer. CVA is needed to evaluate…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-31 Elisa Alos , Fabio Antonelli , Alessandro Ramponi , Sergio Scarlatti

Credit risk management in Italy is characterized, in the period June 2008 to June 2012, by frequent (frequency=0.5 cycles per year) and intense (peak amplitude: mean=39.2 billion Euros, s.e.=2.83 billion Euros) quarterly contractions and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-10 Stefano Olgiati , Alessandro Danovi

We follow a long path for Credit Derivatives and Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) in particular, from the introduction of the Gaussian copula model and the related implied correlations to the introduction of arbitrage-free dynamic…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-02-17 Damiano Brigo , Andrea Pallavicini , Roberto Torresetti

We present a dialogue on Counterparty Credit Risk touching on Credit Value at Risk (Credit VaR), Potential Future Exposure (PFE), Expected Exposure (EE), Expected Positive Exposure (EPE), Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA), Debit Valuation…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2012-06-19 Damiano Brigo

We show that capital flow (CF) volatility exerts an adverse effect on exchange rate (FX) volatility, regardless of whether capital controls have been put in place. However, this effect can be significantly moderated by certain macroeconomic…

General Economics · Economics 2022-10-11 Louisa Chen , Estelle Xue Liu , Zijun Liu