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Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-11 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

We introduce a new mathematical framework for the probabilistic description of an experiment on a system of any type in terms of information representing this system initially. Based on the notions of an information state and a generalized…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Elena R. Loubenets

Kernel methods represent one of the most powerful tools in machine learning to tackle problems expressed in terms of function values and derivatives due to their capability to represent and model complex relations. While these methods show…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-06 Bharath K. Sriperumbudur , Zoltan Szabo

There is a movement in design of experiments away from the classic randomization put forward by Fisher, Cochran and others to one based on optimization. In fixed-sample trials comparing two groups, measurements of subjects are known in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-22 Adam Kapelner , Abba M. Krieger , Uri Shalit , David Azriel

To analyze the uncertain data frequently encountered in practice, this paper proposes novel fixed-effects models that incorporate an uncertain measure to investigate variables of interest and nuisance variables in factor designs. First, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Fan Zhang , Zhiming Li

Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing clustered or repeated measures data. We propose a quasi-likelihood approach for estimation and inference of the unknown parameters in linear mixed-effects models with high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-10 Sai Li , Tony T. Cai , Hongzhe Li

Consider a researcher estimating the parameters of a regression function based on data for all 50 states in the United States or on data for all visits to a website. What is the interpretation of the estimated parameters and the standard…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-25 Alberto Abadie , Susan Athey , Guido W. Imbens , Jeffrey M. Wooldridge

We introduce inferential methods for prediction based on functional random effects in generalized functional mixed effects models. This is similar to the inference for random effects in generalized linear mixed effects models (GLMMs), but…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-15 Xinkai Zhou , Erjia Cui , Joseph Sartini , Ciprian Crainiceanu

We can, and should, do statistical inference on simulation models by adjusting the parameters in the simulation so that the values of {\em randomly chosen} functions of the simulation output match the values of those same functions…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-18 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (RL) is widely believed to have the potential to improve sample efficiency by allowing an agent to synthesize large amounts of imagined experience. Experience Replay (ER) can be considered a simple kind of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Kenny Young , Aditya Ramesh , Louis Kirsch , Jürgen Schmidhuber

We derive randomization-based models for experiments with a chain of randomizations. The estimation theory for these models leads to formulae for the estimators of treatment effects, their standard errors, and expected mean squares in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-16 R. A. Bailey , C. J. Brien

We describe two different approaches for incorporating systematics into analyses for parameter determination in the physical sciences. We refer to these as the Pragmatic and the Full methods, with the latter coming in two variants: Full…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-06-09 David van Dyk , Louis Lyons

Regression analyses based on transformations of cumulative incidence functions are often adopted when modeling and testing for treatment effects in clinical trial settings involving competing and semi-competing risks. Common frameworks…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-11 Alexandra Bühler , Richard J Cook , Jerald F Lawless

The random feature method (RFM) has demonstrated great potential in bridging traditional numerical methods and machine learning techniques for solving partial differential equations (PDEs). It retains the advantages of mesh-free approaches…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-05-02 Mikhail Kuvakin , Zijian Mei , Jingrun Chen

Model selection strategies have been routinely employed to determine a model for data analysis in statistics, and further study and inference then often proceed as though the selected model were the true model that were known a priori. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-13 Priyam Mitra , Heng Lian , Ritwik Mitra , Hua Liang , Min-ge Xie

We present a continuous formulation of machine learning, as a problem in the calculus of variations and differential-integral equations, in the spirit of classical numerical analysis. We demonstrate that conventional machine learning models…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-02 Weinan E , Chao Ma , Lei Wu

Classical probability theory supports probability measures, assigning a fixed positive real value to each event, these measures are far from satisfactory in formulating real-life occurrences. The main innovation of this paper is the…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-02-09 Yehuda Izhakian , Zur Izhakian

Frailty models are essential tools in survival analysis for addressing unobserved heterogeneity and random effects in the data. These models incorporate a random effect, the frailty, which is assumed to impact the hazard rate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Jorge Yslas

This paper proposes a theoretical framework which models the information provided by retrieval systems in terms of Information Theory. The proposed framework allows to formalize: (i) system effectiveness as an information theoretic…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2018-09-17 Enrique Amigó , Fernando Giner , Stefano Mizzaro , Damiano Spina

The Fisher randomization test (FRT) is appropriate for any test statistic, under a sharp null hypothesis that can recover all missing potential outcomes. However, it is often sought after to test a weak null hypothesis that the treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-09 Jason Wu , Peng Ding
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