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We provide a bird's eye view onto the area of sequential change-point detection. We focus on the discrete-time case with known pre- and post-change data distributions and offer a summary of the forefront asymptotic results established in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-15 Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Grigory Sokolov , Wenyu Du

In this paper, the problem of quickly detecting an abrupt change on a stochastic process under Bayesian framework is considered. Different from the classic Bayesian quickest change-point detection problem, this paper considers the case…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-08-24 Jun Geng , Erhan Bayraktar , Lifeng Lai

In multiple change-point problems, different data segments often follow different distributions, for which the changes may occur in the mean, scale or the entire distribution from one segment to another. Without the need to know the number…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-05-29 Changliang Zou , Guosheng Yin , Long Feng , Zhaojun Wang

A Markov-switching observation-driven model is a stochastic process $((S_t,Y_t))_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ where $(S_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an unobserved Markov chain on a finite set and $(Y_t)_{t \in \mathbb{Z}}$ is an observed stochastic…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-30 Frederik Krabbe

We consider the quickest change detection problem where both the parameters of pre- and post- change distributions are unknown, which prevents the use of classical simple hypothesis testing. Without additional assumptions, optimal solutions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-10 Firas Jarboui , Viannet Perchet

In the regime of change-point detection, a nonparametric framework based on scan statistics utilizing graphs representing similarities among observations is gaining attention due to its flexibility and good performances for high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-16 Hoseung Song , Hao Chen

We consider the problem of quickest changepoint detection under the Average Run Length (ARL) constraint where the pre-change and post-change laws lie in composite families $\mathscr{P}$ and $\mathscr{Q}$ respectively. In such a problem, a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-06 Ashwin Ram , Aaditya Ramdas

In this paper we consider the problem of detecting a change in the parameters of an autoregressive process, where the moments of the innovation process do not necessarily exist. An empirical likelihood ratio test for the existence of a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-12-07 Fumiya Akashi , Holger Dette , Yan Liu

We consider the problem of quickest change-point detection where the observations form a first-order autoregressive (AR) process driven by temporally independent standard Gaussian noise. Subject to possible change are both the drift of the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-06-06 Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Vasanthan Raghavan

In the sequential change-point detection literature, most research specifies a required frequency of false alarms at a given pre-change distribution $f_{\theta}$ and tries to minimize the detection delay for every possible post-change…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Yajun Mei

We propose a distributed Bayesian quickest change detection algorithm for sensor networks, based on a random gossip inter-sensor communication structure. Without a control or fusion center, each sensor executes its local change detection…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-12-09 Di Li , Soummya Kar , Fuad E. Alsaadi , Shuguang Cui

We address the computational challenge of finding the robust sequential change-point detection procedures when the pre- and post-change distributions are not completely specified. Earlier works [veeravalli 1994] and [Unnikrishnan 2011]…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-14 Yang Cao , Yao Xie

A random sequence having two segments being the homogeneous Markov processes is registered. Each segment has his own transition probability law and the length of the segment is unknown and random. The transition probabilities of each…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-11-17 A. Ochman-Gozdek , W. Sarnowski , K. J. Szajowski

We consider the problem of sequential detection of a change in the statistical behavior of a hidden Markov model. By adopting a worst-case analysis with respect to the time of change and by taking into account the data that can be accessed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-29 George V. Moustakides

It is commonly required to detect change points in sequences of random variables. In the most difficult setting of this problem, change detection must be performed sequentially with new observations being constantly received over time.…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-08 Gordon J Ross

This paper presents a general asymptotic theory of sequential Bayesian estimation giving results for the strongest, almost sure convergence. We show that under certain smoothness conditions on the probability model, the greedy information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-11 Janne V. Kujala

The problem of detection and possible estimation of a signal generated by a dynamic system when a variable number of noisy measurements can be taken is here considered. Assuming a Markov evolution of the system (in particular, the pair…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-05-12 Emanuele Grossi , Marco Lops

We provide an overview of the state-of-the-art in the area of sequential change-point detection assuming discrete time and known pre- and post-change distributions. The overview spans over all major formulations of the underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-09-21 Aleksey S. Polunchenko , Alexander G. Tartakovsky

We consider the testing and estimation of change-points, locations where the distribution abruptly changes, in a sequence of multivariate or non-Euclidean observations. We study a nonparametric framework that utilizes similarity information…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-23 Lynna Chu , Hao Chen

We investigate the problem of covert quickest change detection in a Bayesian and infinite-horizon setting. A legitimate entity seeks to detect a change in the state of a discrete memoryless channel as quickly as possible by actively probing…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Yun-Feng Lo , Matthieu R. Bloch