Related papers: Vector-borne diseases models with residence times …
We investigate how key epidemiological parameters shape both seasonal epidemics and the persistence of dengue transmission. Our findings confirm known mechanistic drivers of epidemic variability and introduce a ranking of parameter…
Empirical studies suggest that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event times, meaning that intervals of high activity are followed by periods of inactivity. Combined with birth and death of individuals, these temporal constraints…
Early, reliable detection of disease outbreaks is a critical problem today. This paper reports an investigation of the use of causal Bayesian networks to model spatio-temporal patterns of a non-contagious disease (respiratory anthrax…
Infectious disease transmission in human populations has a complex two-way interaction with changes in host behaviour. It is increasingly recognised that incorporating adaptive behavioural change into epidemic models is important for…
We explore the role of cellular life cycles for viruses and host cells in an infection process. For this purpose, we derive a generalized version of the basic model of virus dynamics (Nowak, M.A., Bangham, C.R.M., 1996. Population dynamics…
In this paper we describe the dynamics of a vector-borne relapsing disease, such as tick-borne relapsing fever, using the methods of compartmental models. After some motivation, model description, and a brief overview of the theory of…
This paper describes a technique for analyzing the stochastic structure of the vectorial capacity using moment--generating functions. In such formulation, for an infectious disease transmitted by a vector, we obtain the generating function…
We study the random times between successive cases in a transmission chain of infectious diseases with asymptomatic carriers. We derive the probability distribution of this generation time (in days) from a discrete-time epidemic model with…
A host-parasite model is considered for a population of cells that can be of two types, A or B, and exhibits unilateral reproduction: while a B-cell always splits into two cells of the same type, the two daughter cells of an A-cell can be…
We consider multiple diseases spreading in a static Configuration Model network. We make standard assumptions that infection transmits from neighbor to neighbor at a disease-specific rate and infected individuals recover at a…
Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…
An epidemic Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Removed-Susceptible (SVIRS) model is presented on a weighted-undirected network with graph Laplacian diffusion. Disease-free equilibrium always exists while the existence and uniqueness of endemic…
In this work we present a general framework for the modeling of the transmission dynamics of macroparasites which do not reproduce within the host like Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, Necator americanus y Ancylostoma duodenale.…
Stochastic epidemic models, generally more realistic than deterministic counterparts, have often been seen too complex for rigorous mathematical analysis because of level of details it requires to comprehensively capture the dynamics of…
Infectious disease spread is a multi-scale process composed of within-host (biological) and between-host (social) drivers and disentangling them from each other is a central challenge in epidemiology. Here, we introduce VIBES, a multi-scale…
A compartment epidemic model for infectious disease spreading is investigated, where movement of individuals is governed by spatial diffusion. The model includes infection age of the infected individuals and assumes a logistic growth of the…
Is it possible to break the host-vector chain of transmission when there is an influx of infectious hosts into a na\"{i}ve population and competent vector? To address this question, a class of vector-borne disease models with an arbitrary…
In this paper we study a discrete-time SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model, where the infection and healing parameters and the underlying network may change over time. We provide conditions for the model to be well-defined and…
We develop a stochastic framework for viral population dynamics at the cellular level that explicitly incorporates the replication cycle with random stage durations. The model is formulated as a structured birth-death process coupled with a…
We show that disease transmission models in a spatially heterogeneous environment can have a large number of coexisting endemic equilibria. A general compartmental model is considered to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a…