Related papers: Predictive implications of Gompertz's law
The existence of an upper limit to the human lifespan has been widely debated, with studies offering both supporting and opposing evidence. Using unique individual-level death and population records for individuals aged 90 and older in…
Recent discoveries show steady improvements in life expectancy during modern decades. Does this support that humans continue to live longer in future? We recently put forward the maximum survival tendency, as found in survival curves of…
In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health…
Human aging is marked by a steady rise in the risk of dying with age-a process demographers call senescence. Over the past century, life expectancy has risen dramatically, but is this because we are aging slower, or simply starting it…
Aggregated health data such as claims data from health insurances become more and more available for research purposes. Estimates of excess mortality from prevalence and incidence of a chronic condition have only been possible for ages 50…
Consider the following statement: $B(t, \Delta t)$: a $t$ years old person NN will survive another $\Delta t$ years, where $t, \Delta t\in \mathbb{R}$ are nonnegative real numbers. We know only that NN is $t$ years old and nothing about the…
We propose a new deterministic growth model which captures certain features of both the Gompertz and Korf laws. We investigate its main properties, with special attention to the correction factor, the relative growth rate, the inflection…
Demographic data and recent experiments verify earlier predictions that mortality has short (few percent of the life span) memory of the previous life history, may be significantly decreased, reset to its value at a much younger age, and…
We finely describe the speed of "coming down from infinity" for birth and death processes which eventually become extinct. Under general assumptions on the birth and death rates, we firstly determine the behavior of the successive hitting…
We study supercritical age-structured branching models starting from a single particle with a random lifetime, where the reproduction law depends on the remaining lifetime of the parent. The lifespan of an individual is decided at its birth…
The Penna model is a model of evolutionary ageing through mutation accumulation where traditionally time and the age of an organism are treated as discrete variables and an organism's genome by a binary bit string. We reformulate the…
Trends in human longevity are puzzling, especially when considering the limits of human longevity. Partially, the conflicting assertions are based upon demographic evidence and the interpretation of survival and mortality curves using the…
Human longevity leaders with remarkably long lifespan play a crucial role in the advancement of longevity research. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to describe the evolution of the age of the oldest person in the world by a…
Let $N$ be a natural number. We consider a population which lives on $I_N=\{-N,-N+1,\dots,N-1,N\}$. Each individual gives birth at rate $\lambda$ on each of its neighboring sites and dies at rate 1. No births are allowed from the inside of…
The study considers the model of an abstract organism, called Arbitrary Oscillator (ArbO), which is capable of making decisions at each timed step. These decisions are 'critical' since, randomly, their outcome can be 'fatal' for ArbO, thus…
The Gompertz model since 1825 has significantly contributed to interpretation of ageing in biological and social sciences. However, in modern research findings, it is clear that the Gompertz model is not successful to describe the whole…
Aging is thought to be a consequence of intrinsic breakdowns in how genetic information is processed. But mounting experimental evidence suggests that aging can be slowed. To help resolve this mystery, I derive a mortality equation which…
In nematodes, environmental or physiological perturbations alter death's scaling of time. In human cancer, genetic perturbations alter death's curvature of time. Those changes in scale and curvature follow the constraining contours of…
Author's early work on aging is developed to yield a relationship between life spans and the velocity of aging. The mathematical analysis shows that the mean extent of the advancement of aging throughout one's life is conserved, or…
Since its proposition in 1995, the Heumann-Hotzel model has remained as an obscure model of biological aging. The main arguments used against it were its apparent inability to describe populations with many age intervals and its failure to…