Related papers: Forecasting the Integration of Immigrants
Transportation planning plays a critical role in shaping urban development, economic mobility, and infrastructure sustainability. However, traditional planning methods often struggle to accurately predict long-term urban growth and…
Migration's impact spans various social dimensions, including demography, sustainability, politics, economy and gender disparities. Yet, the decision-making process behind migrants choosing their destination remains elusive. Existing models…
Accurate and reliable predictions of infectious disease dynamics can be valuable to public health organizations that plan interventions to decrease or prevent disease transmission. A great variety of models have been developed for this…
We formulate an age-structured nonlinear partial differential equation model that features short-term immigration effects in a population. Individuals can immigrate into the population as any of the three stages in the model: susceptible,…
Motion prediction for intelligent vehicles typically focuses on estimating the most probable future evolutions of a traffic scenario. Estimating the gap acceptance, i.e., whether a vehicle merges or crosses before another vehicle with the…
Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns, but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on…
We propose an approach for generating macroeconomic density forecasts that incorporate information on multiple scenarios defined by experts. We adopt a regime-switching framework in which sets of scenarios ("views") are used as Bayesian…
Nowadays, new branches of research are proposing the use of non-traditional data sources for the study of migration trends in order to find an original methodology to answer open questions about the human mobility framework. In this context…
Understanding and predicting human migration patterns is a central challenge in population dynamics research. Traditional physics-inspired gravity and radiation models represent migration flows as functions of attractiveness using…
We introduce the Hawkes process with renewal immigration and make its statistical estimation possible with two Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithms. The standard Hawkes process introduces immigrant points via a Poisson process, and each…
Density ratio estimation in high dimensions can be reframed as integrating a certain quantity, the time score, over probability paths which interpolate between the two densities. In practice, the time score has to be estimated based on…
In this paper, we have discussed initial findings and results of our experiment to predict sexual and reproductive health vulnerabilities of migrants in a data-constrained environment. Notwithstanding the limited research and data about…
Since flight delay hurts passengers, airlines, and airports, its prediction becomes crucial for the decision-making of all stakeholders in the aviation industry and thus has been attempted by various previous research. However, previous…
Predicting competitive outcomes typically requires fitting dynamical models to data, from which interaction strengths and coexistence indicators such as invasion criteria can be produced. Methods that allow to propagate parameter…
The link between age and migration propensity is long established, but existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate…
In a given scenario, simultaneously and accurately predicting every possible interaction of traffic participants is an important capability for autonomous vehicles. The majority of current researches focused on the prediction of an single…
Traffic congestion at intersections is a significant issue in urban areas, leading to increased commute times, safety hazards, and operational inefficiencies. This study aims to develop a predictive model for congestion at intersections in…
Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series…
There is a growing need for flexible general frameworks that integrate individual-level data with external summary information for improved statistical inference. External information relevant for a risk prediction model may come in…
Immigration is often blamed for increasing unemployment among local workers. This sentiment is reflected in the rise of anti-immigration parties and policies in Western democracies. And in fact, numerous studies estimate that in the short…