Related papers: Forecasting the Integration of Immigrants

For robots to be a part of our daily life, they need to be able to navigate among crowds not only safely but also in a socially compliant fashion. This is a challenging problem because humans tend to navigate by implicitly cooperating with…

The traditional approach to the quantitative study of segregation is to employ indices that are selected by ``desirable properties''. Here, we detail how information theory underpins entropy-based indices and demonstrate how desirable…

Preventing traffic congestion by forecasting near time traffic flows is an important problem as it leads to effective use of transport resources. Social network provides information about activities of humans and social events. Thus, with…

Humanitarian agencies must be prepared to mobilize quickly in response to complex emergencies, and their effectiveness depends on their ability to identify, anticipate, and prepare for future needs. These are typically highly uncertain…

Inferring sociodemographic attributes from mobility data could help transportation planners better leverage passively collected datasets, but this task remains difficult due to weak and inconsistent relationships between mobility patterns…

Forecast combination -- the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models -- is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which…

Racial residential segregation is a defining and enduring feature of U.S. society, shaping inter-group relations, racial disparities in income and health, and access to high-quality public goods and services. The design of policies aimed at…

We present a queuing model of parking dynamics and a model-based prediction method to provide real-time probabilistic forecasts of future parking occupancy. The queuing model has a non-homogeneous arrival rate and time-varying service time…

Delay embedding---a method for reconstructing dynamical systems by delay coordinates---is widely used to forecast nonlinear time series as a model-free approach. When multivariate time series are observed, several existing frameworks can be…

It is often reported in forecast combination literature that a simple average of candidate forecasts is more robust than sophisticated combining methods. This phenomenon is usually referred to as the "forecast combination puzzle". Motivated…

Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical…

In Schelling's segregation model, the successive moves of agents optimizing their own locations lead to a suboptimal segregated distribution of the population, even though all agents have the same preference for mixed neighborhoods. One of…

Modern societies feature an increasing contact between cultures, yet we have a poor understanding of what the outcomes might be. Here we consider a mathematical model of contact between social groups, grounded in social psychology and…

Analysis of the urban population fraction data for sixteen populous countries over the last fifty years reveals a universal increase in urbanization, exhibiting four qualitatively distinct temporal patterns: (i) continuously accelerating…

This paper generalizes recent proposals of density forecasting models and it develops theory for this class of models. In density forecasting, the density of observations is estimated in regions where the density is not observed.…

In large venues like shopping malls and airports, knowledge on the indoor populations fuels applications such as business analytics, venue management, and safety control. In this work, we provide means of modeling populations in partitions…

Recent progress in time-series forecasting has led to rapidly increasing architectural complexity, yet many reported State-of-the-Art gains are statistically fragile or misattributed. We argue that progress requires a shift from model…

This paper presents expression of mutual information that defines the information gain in planning of sensing resources, when the goal is to reduce the forecast uncertainty of some quantities of interest and the system dynamics is described…

This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for the sequential estimation of the likelihood of a driver or passenger(s) returning to the vehicle and time of arrival, from the available partial track of the user location. The latter can be…

To enhance the evacuation efficiency in partially observable asymmetric-exit evacuation under guidance, a general framework of the dynamic guiding assistant system is presented to investigate the effect of density control. In this…