Related papers: Early-warning indicators for rate-induced tipping
Approaching a dangerous bifurcation, from which a dynamical system such as the Earth's climate will jump (tip) to a different state, the current stable state lies within a shrinking basin of attraction. Persistence of the state becomes…
Early warning signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition (or tipping) from a desirable state to an undesirable state. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied…
A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass…
Nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to a combination of noise and time-varying forcing can exhibit sudden changes, critical transitions or tipping points where large or rapid dynamic effects arise from changes in a parameter that are…
The future behavioural fate of a forced nonlinear system can depend sensitively on the forcing profile as well as natural fluctuations within the system. This is especially the case for rate-induced tipping, where the forcing pushes the…
We analyze rate-dependent tipping in a fast/slow system with an equilibrium near the fold of a critical manifiold. We find a Hopf bifurcation as the rate parameter increases in the reduced co-moving system. This implies the growth of a…
The current definition of rate-induced tipping is tied to the idea of a pullback attractor limiting in forward and backward time to a stable quasi-static equilibrium. Here we propose a new definition that encompasses the standard definition…
We discuss the nonlinear phenomena of irreversible tipping for non-autonomous systems where time-varying inputs correspond to a smooth "parameter shift" from one asymptotic value to another. We express tipping in terms of pullback…
A variation in the environment of a system, such as the temperature, the concentration of a chemical solution or the appearance of a magnetic field, may lead to a drift in one of the parameters. If the parameter crosses a bifurcation point,…
Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…
We present a novel exactly solvable ordinary differential equation model for rate-induced tipping: a dynamic phenomenon of dynamical systems where a time-dependent parameter triggers the transition of stability of a system. Our model…
An in-depth analysis of nonautonomous bifurcations of saddle-node type for scalar differential equations $x'=-x^2+q(t)\,x+p(t)$, where $q\colon\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ and $p\colon\mathbb{R}\to\mathbb{R}$ are bounded and uniformly…
There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…
Tipping points (TP) are often described as low-dimensional bifurcations, and are associated with early-warning signals (EWS) due to critical slowing down (CSD). CSD is an increase in amplitude and correlation of noise-induced fluctuations…
Tipping behavior can occur when an equilibrium of a dynamical system loses stability in response to a slowly varying parameter crossing a bifurcation threshold, or where noise drives a system from one attractor to another, or some…
In stochastic multistable systems driven by the gradient of a potential, transitions between equilibria is possible because of noise. We study the ability of linear delay feedback control to mitigate these transitions, ensuring that the…
We develop a definition of rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) in discrete-time dynamical systems (maps) and prove results giving conditions under which R-tipping will or will not happen. Specifically, we study (possibly non-invertible) maps…
Nonlinear dynamical systems may be exposed to tipping points, critical thresholds at which small changes in the external inputs or in the systems parameters abruptly shift the system to an alternative state with a contrasting dynamical…
Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…