Related papers: Early-warning indicators for rate-induced tipping

We study the nonlinear dynamics of two delay-coupled neural systems each modelled by excitable dynamics of FitzHugh-Nagumo type and demonstrate that bistability between the stable fixed point and limit cycle oscillations occurs for…

We consider the two-component delay system $\varepsilon x^{\prime}(t)=-x(t)-y(t)+f(x(t-1)),$ $y^{\prime}(t)=\eta x(t)$ with small parameters $\varepsilon,\eta$, and positive feedback function $f$. Previously, such systems have been reported…

Here we present a simple stochastic threshold model consisting of a deterministic slowly decaying term and a fast stochastic noise term. The process shows a pseudo-resonance, in the sense that for small and large intensities of the noise…

Conditions such as insomnia, cardiac arrhythmia and jet-lag share a common feature: they are all related to the ability of biological systems to synchronize with the day-night cycle. When organisms lose resilience, this ability of…

This paper proposes a general model for synchronized crowding behavior. An order parameter is introduced to quantify the level of synchronization which is shown a function of percentage of agents in reactive state. Further, synchronization…

When quantifying the time spent in the transient of a complex dynamical system, the fundamental problem is that for a large class of systems the actual time for reaching an attractor is infinite. Common methods for dealing with this problem…

We study the noise-induced escape process in a prototype dissipative nonequilibrium system, the Ikeda map. In the presence of a chaotic saddle embedded in the basin of attraction of the metastable state, we find the novel phenomenon of a…

In this paper, we study the stochastic optimal control problem for control system with time-varying delay. The corresponding stochastic differential equation is a kind of stochastic differential delay equation. We prove the existence and…

With shrinking interconnect spacing in advanced technology nodes, existing timing predictions become less precise due to the challenging quantification of crosstalk-induced delay. During the routing, the crosstalk effect is typically…

There is a growing awareness that catastrophic phenomena in biology and medicine can be mathematically represented in terms of saddle-node bifurcations. In particular, the term `tipping', or critical transition has in recent years entered…

Much work aims to explain a model's prediction on a static input. We consider explanations in a temporal setting where a stateful dynamical model produces a sequence of risk estimates given an input at each time step. When the estimated…

Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales.…

Dynamic networks are interconnected dynamic systems with measured node signals and dynamic modules reflecting the links between the nodes. We address the problem of \red{identifying a dynamic network with known topology, on the basis of…

Drift diffusion models (DDMs) have found widespread use in computational neuroscience and other fields. They model evidence accumulation in simple decision tasks as a stochastic process drifting towards a decision barrier. In models where…

Time--delayed feedback is exploited for controlling noise--induced motion in coherence resonance oscillators. Namely, under the proper choice of time delay, one can either increase or decrease the regularity of motion. It is shown that in…

In multistable dynamical systems driven by weak Gaussian noise, transitions between competing states are often assumed to pass via a saddle on the separating basin boundary. By contrast, we show that timescale separation can cause saddle…

In this paper, we analyse the impact of delayed event detection on the stability of a 2-mode planar hybrid automata. We consider hybrid automata with a unique equilibrium point for all the modes, and we find the maximum delay that preserves…

This paper presents an on-board advance warning system for vehicles based on a probabilistic prediction model that advises them on when to change lanes to reach a highway diverge on time. The system is based on a model that estimates the…

Accurate calibration is essential for instruments whose measurements must remain traceable, reliable, and compliant over long operating periods. Fixed-interval programs are easy to administer, but they ignore that instruments drift at…

We consider the problem of parameter estimation, based on noisy chaotic signals, from the viewpoint of twisted modulation for waveform communication. In particular, we study communication systems where the parameter to be estimated is…