Related papers: Why is GDP growth linear?
A society or country with income equally distributed among its people is truly a fiction! The phenomena of socioeconomic inequalities have been plaguing mankind from times immemorial. We are interested in gaining an insight about the…
This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled…
The gross domestic product (GDP) is the most widely used indicator in macroeconomics and the main tool for measuring a country's economic output. Due to the diversity and complexity of the world economy, a wide range of models have been…
This paper considers an often forgotten relationship, the time delay between a cause and its effect in economies and finance. We treat the case of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth, - measured through a country Gross…
The major study by Bordo and Helbing (2003) analyses the business cycle in Western economies 1881-2001. They examine four distinct periods in economic history, and conclude that there is a secular trend towards greater synchronisation for…
Understanding the business cycle is crucial for building economic stability, guiding business planning, and informing investment decisions. The business cycle refers to the recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in economic activity…
Modeling and predicting extreme movements in GDP is notoriously difficult and the selection of appropriate covariates and/or possible forms of nonlinearities are key in obtaining precise forecasts. In this paper, our focus is on using large…
GDP/capita correlations are investigated in various time windows (TW), for the time interval 1990-2005. The target group of countries is the set of 25 EU members, 15 till 2004 plus the 10 countries which joined EU later on. The TW-means of…
The Latin American region has suffered an economic slowdown since the end of the commodities boom. Within this context, Chile was the poster child of economic growth and development up until 2014. Since then, Chile has also been trapped in…
The personal income distribution (PID) above the Pareto threshold is studied and modeled. A microeconomic model is proposed to simulate the PID and its evolution below and above the Pareto income threshold. The model balances processes of…
We analyze the forces that explain inflation using a panel of 122 countries from 1997 to 2015 with 37 regressors. 98 models motivated by economic theory are compared to a gradient boosting algorithm, non-linearities and structural breaks…
Compared to other global powers, the European Union (EU) is rarely considered a leading player in the development of artificial intelligence (AI). Why is this, and does this in fact accurately reflect the activities of the EU? What would it…
This paper investigates Minsky's cycles by extending the paper of stockhammer et al. (2019) with a nonlinear model to capture possible local real-financial endogenous cycles. We trace nonlinear regime changes and check the presence of…
This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries…
The aim of this work is to establish the personal income distribution from the elementary constituents of a free market; products of a representative good and agents forming the economic network. The economy is treated as a self-organized…
The expression "wage transition" refers to the fact that over the past two or three decades in all developed economies wage increases have levelled off. There has been a widening divergence and decoupling between wages on the one hand and…
A new model that combines economic growth rate fluctuations at the microscopic and macroscopic level is presented. At the microscopic level, firms are growing at different rates while also being exposed to idiosyncratic shocks at the firm…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing exponentially and is likely to have profound impacts on human wellbeing, social equity, and environmental sustainability. Here we argue that the "alignment problem" in AI research is also an…
This paper explores the complex relationship between demographics and artificial intelligence (AI) advances in Europe and Africa, projecting into the year 2050. The advancement of AI technologies has occurred at diverse rates, with Africa…
The accumulation of knowledge required to produce economic value is a process that often relates to nations economic growth. Such a relationship, however, is misleading when the proxy of such accumulation is the average years of education.…