Related papers: Why is GDP growth linear?

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the…

We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2019. We show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate…

Mathematical properties of the historical GDP/cap distributions are discussed and explained. These distributions are frequently incorrectly interpreted and the Unified Growth Theory is an outstanding example of such common misconceptions.…

In economic literature, economic complexity is typically approximated on the basis of an economy's gross export structure. However, in times of ever increasingly integrated global value chains, gross exports may convey an inaccurate image…

We use the logistic equation to model the dynamics of the GDP and the trade of the six countries with the highest GDP in the world, namely, USA, China, Japan, Germany, UK and India. From the modelling of the economic data, which are made…

Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the…

There has been a long-running debate in Information Technology (IT) and economics literature about the contrary arguments of IT concerning digitalization and the economic growth of nations. While many empirical studies have shown a…

A central socioeconomic concern about Artificial Intelligence is that it will lower wages by depressing the labor share - the fraction of economic output paid to labor. We show that declining labor share is more likely to raise wages. In a…

Business cycles (a periodic change of e.g. GDP over five to ten years) exist, but a proper explanation for it is still lacking. Here we extend the well-known NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) model, resulting in a set…

The quest for accurate economic forecasting has traditionally been dominated by econometric models, which most of the times rely on the assumptions of linear relationships and stationarity in of the data. However, the complex and often…

Multivariate linear regression models suggest a trade-off in allocations of national R&D investments. Government funding, and spending in the higher education sector, seem to encourage publications, whereas other components such as…

This paper presents a simple model to measure the relative economic growth of economic systems. The model considers S-Shaped patterns of economic growth that, represented with a linear model, measure how an economic system grows in…

What predicts the evolution over time of subjective well-being? We correlate the trends of subjective well-being with the trends of social capital and/or GDP. We find that in the long and medium run social capital largely predicts the…

Artificial intelligence (AI) is already part of our daily lives and is playing a key role in defining the economic and social shape of the future. In 2018, the European Commission introduced its AI strategy able to compete in the next years…

In response to the call for a science of science policy, we discuss the contribution of indicators at the macro-level of nations from a scientometric perspective. In addition to global trends such as the rise of China, one can relate…

Data for many nations show a long-run increase, over many decades, of income, indexed by GDP per capita, and population health, indexed by mortality or life expectancy at birth (LEB). However, the short-run and long-run relationships…

Research and development (R&D) of countries play a major role in a long-term development of the economy. We measure the R&D efficiency of all 28 member countries of the European Union in the years 2008--2014. Super-efficient data…

We demonstrate the effectiveness of the logistic function to model the evolution of two economic systems. The first is the GDP and trade growth of the USA, and the second is the revenue and human resource growth of IBM. Our modelling is…

Diversified economies are critical for cities to sustain their growth and development, but they are also costly because diversification often requires expanding a city's capability base. We analyze how cities manage this trade-off by…

Economic competition between humans leads to income inequality, but, so far, there has been little understanding of underlying quantitative mechanisms governing such a collective behavior. We analyze datasets of household income from 67…