Related papers: Why is GDP growth linear?
Galor discovered many mysteries of the growth process. He lists them in his Unified Growth Theory and wonders how they can be explained. Close inspection of his mysteries reveals that they are of his own creation. They do not exist. He…
Accuracy of economic theories and efficiency of economic policy strictly depend on the choice of the economic variables and processes mostly liable for description of economic reality. That states the general problem of assessment of any…
An array system of coupled maps is proposed as a model for economy evolution. The local dynamics of each map or agent is controlled by two parameters. One of them represents the growth capacity of the agent and the other one is a control…
Economic growth in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, countries of the former USSR, Africa and Latin America were analysed. It is demonstrated that the fundamental postulate of the Unified Growth Theory about the existence of the three…
The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…
The dependence of world GDP on current energy consumption and total energy produced over the previous period and materialized in the form of production infrastructure is studied. The dependence describes empirical data with high accuracy…
The pursuit of having an appropriate level of income inequality should be viewed as one of the biggest challenges facing academic scholars as well as policy makers. Unfortunately, research on this issue is currently lacking. This study is…
Over the last decades, in disciplines as diverse as economics, geography, and complex systems, a perspective has arisen proposing that many properties of cities are quantitatively predictable due to agglomeration or scaling effects. Using…
The article discusses a generalization of model of economic growth with constant pace, which takes into account the effects of dynamic memory. Memory means that endogenous or exogenous variable at a given time depends not only on their…
This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…
We study the effects of introducing information inefficiency in a model for a random linear economy with a representative consumer. This is done by considering statistical, instead of classical, economic general equilibria. Employing two…
This model offers a compelling explanation for the observed decline in fertility rates in developed countries, correlating it with the rising economic status of women, and thereby providing valuable insights for policy-making. In summary,…
In the last 150 years, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has increased from 280 parts per million to 400 parts per million. This has caused an increase in the average global temperatures by nearly 0.7 degree centigrade due to the…
The artificial intelligence value chain is one of the main concepts underpinning the European legislation on the subject, especially the Artificial Intelligence Act. It is an economic concept that has become a legal one. i.e., a concept of…
We analyze and develop a quantitative model describing the evolution of personal income distribution, PID, for males and females in the U.S. between 1930 and 2014. The overall microeconomic model, which we introduced ten years ago,…
This study examines the relationship between GDP growth and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) across developed economies (G7, EU-15, OECD) and emerging markets (BRICS). We integrate Random Forest machine learning (non-linear regression)…
We have studied the parametric description of the distribution of the log-growth rates of the sizes of cities of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the USA. We have considered several parametric distributions well known in the literature as…
In a recent study (Garrett, 2011), I described theoretical arguments and empirical evidence showing how civilization evolution might be considered from a purely physical basis. One implication is that civilization exhibits the property of…
I examine global recessions as a cascade phenomenon. In other words, how recessions arising in one or more countries might percolate across a network of connected economies. A heterogeneous agent based model is set up in which the agents…
Concerns about declining or ageing populations often centre on the fear that fewer people will translate to a weaker economy and lower living standards. But these fears are frequently based on oversimplified or misapplied interpretations of…