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Progressive diseases worsen over time and are characterised by monotonic change in features that track disease progression. Here we connect ideas from two formerly separate methodologies -- event-based and hidden Markov modelling -- to…
Human longevity leaders with remarkably long lifespan play a crucial role in the advancement of longevity research. In this paper, we propose a stochastic model to describe the evolution of the age of the oldest person in the world by a…
The aim of this paper is to study the construction of prospective mortality tables from a low number of persons subjected to risk. The presented models are the Lee-Carter and log-Poisson methods respectively. The low number of people…
Mortality data are relevant to demography, public health, and actuarial science. Whilst clustering is increasingly used to explore patterns in such data, no study has reviewed its application to country-level all-cause mortality. This…
This work proposes a method for modeling and forecasting mortality rates. It constitutes an improvement over previous studies by incorporating both the historical evolution of the mortality phenomenon and its random behavior. In the first…
We investigate the bounding problem of causal effects in experimental studies in which the outcome is truncated by death, meaning that the subject dies before the outcome can be measured. Causal effects cannot be point identified without…
This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…
Objective: Determining the structure of mortality from causes and sociodemographic characteristics, in the municipality of San Francisco, Antioquia, 2001-2010. Methodology: Quantitative descriptive study with retrospective longitudinal data…
Geographic patterns in stroke mortality have been studied as far back as the 1960s, when a region of the southeastern United States became known as the "stroke belt" due to its unusually high rates of stroke mortality. While stroke…
In multi-state life insurance, an adequate balance between analytic tractability, computational efficiency, and statistical flexibility is of great importance. This might explain the popularity of Markov chain modelling, where matrix…
Predicting the evolution of mortality rates plays a central role for life insurance and pension funds.Various stochastic frameworks have been developed to model mortality patterns taking into account the main stylized facts driving these…
New models for evolutionary processes of mutation accumulation allow hypotheses about the age-specificity of mutational effects to be translated into predictions of heterogeneous population hazard functions. We apply these models to…
Undoubtedly, several countries worldwide endure to experience a continuous increase in life expectancy, extending the challenges of life actuaries and demographers in forecasting mortality. Although several stochastic mortality models have…
Background: Suicide remains a major public health concern worldwide, responsible for more than 700,000 deaths in 2021, accounting for approximately 1.1\% of all global deaths. While many high-income countries have reported declines in…
We seek to elucidate the impact of social activity, physical activity and functional health status (factors) on depressive symptoms (outcome) in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), a multi-year study of aging…
Aging, as defined in terms of the slope of the probability of death versus time (hazard curve), is a generic phenomenon observed in nearly all complex systems. Theoretical models of aging predict hazard curves that monotonically increase in…
The sufficient cause framework has been used for decades to improve our understanding of both basic and more complex causal concepts in epidemiology, such as mediation and interaction. Here, we make use of this framework to provide a…
Excess hazard modeling is one of the main tools in population-based cancer survival research. Indeed, this setting allows for direct modeling of the survival due to cancer even in the absence of reliable information on the cause of death,…
Energy flow through consumer-resource interactions is largely determined by body size. Allometric relationships govern the dynamics of populations by impacting rates of reproduction, as well as alternative sources of mortality, which have…
Obesity is a major health problem, increasing the risk of various major chronic diseases, such as diabetes, cancer, and stroke. While the role of obesity identified by cross-sectional BMI recordings has been heavily studied, the role of BMI…