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In this paper, we advance the network theory of aging and mortality by developing a causal mathematical model for the mortality rate. First, we show that in large networks, where health deficits accumulate at nodes representing health…
Excess mortality, i.e. the difference between expected and observed mortality, is used to quantify the death toll of mortality shocks, such as infectious disease-related epidemics and pandemics. However, predictions of expected mortality…
Understanding how best to estimate state-level policy effects is important, and several unanswered questions remain, particularly about the ability of statistical models to disentangle the effects of concurrently enacted policies. In…
Cardiovascular disease remains a leading global cause of mortality, necessitating accurate risk prediction tools. Traditional methods, such as QRISK and the Framingham heart score, exhibit limitations in their ability to incorporate…
We introduce a compositional power transformation, known as an {\alpha}-transformation, to model and forecast a time series of life-table death counts, possibly with zero counts observed at older ages. As a generalisation of the isometric…
An important issue is that the respiratory mortality may be a result of air pollution which can be measured by the following variables: temperature, relative humidity, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, hydrocarbons, ozone…
Age-specific life-table death counts observed over time are examples of densities. Non-negativity and summability are constraints that sometimes require modifications of standard linear statistical methods. The centered log-ratio…
Mortality displacement is the concept that deaths are moved forward in time (e.g., a few days, several months, and years) by exposure from when they would occur without the exposure, which is common in environmental time-series studies.…
An essential input of annuity pricing is the future retiree mortality. From observed age-specific mortality data, modeling and forecasting can be taken place in two routes. On the one hand, we can first truncate the available data to…
The increasing life expectancy enhances the importance of mortality forecasting. Most developing nations, including Tanzania, forecast mortality rates using static life tables. However, these tables exaggerate death probabilities by…
An important task in health research is to characterize time-to-event outcomes such as disease onset or mortality in terms of a potentially high-dimensional set of risk factors. For example, prospective cohort studies of Alzheimer's disease…
Aging is thought to be a consequence of intrinsic breakdowns in how genetic information is processed. But mounting experimental evidence suggests that aging can be slowed. To help resolve this mystery, I derive a mortality equation which…
This paper presents an application of Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) for analyzing age-specific death rates (ASDRs), constituting a longitudinal dataset with repeated measurements over time. GEE models, known for their robustness in…
Multi-state survival analysis considers several potential events of interest along a disease pathway. Such analyses are crucial to model complex patient trajectories and are increasingly being used in epidemiological and health economic…
We conducted a prospective analysis of incident dementia and its association with 65 sociodemographic, early-life, economic, health and behavioral, social, and genetic risk factors in a sample of 7,908 adults over the age of 50 from the…
While abundant empirical studies support the long-range dependence (LRD) of mortality rates, the corresponding impact on mortality securities are largely unknown due to the lack of appropriate tractable models for valuation and risk…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
The approach of causality based on physical laws and systems is revisited. The issue of "levels", the relevance to epidemiology and the definition of effects are particularly developed. Moreover it is argued that this approach that we call…
Separate modelling of cause specific mortality rates and their projections can yield inconsistent forecasts when the sum of deaths by cause does not match the total observed in a population. We develop a hierarchical probabilistic framework…
Climate change poses increasing challenges for mortality modeling and underscores the need to integrate climate-related variables into mortality forecasting. This study introduces a two-step approach that incorporates climate information…