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Stochastic Structural Stability Theory (SSST) provides an autonomous, deterministic, nonlinear dynamical system for evolving the statistical mean state of a turbulent system. In this work SSST is applied to the problem of understanding the…
Accumulated precipitation forecasts are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies in northern tropical Africa. In this study, we analyze the performance of nine operational global ensemble prediction systems…
Coastal upwelling, driven by alongshore winds and characterized by cold sea surface temperatures and high upper-ocean nutrient content, is an important physical process sustaining some of the oceans' most productive ecosystems. To fully…
In this work we use the random matrix theory (RMT) to correctly describethe behavior of spectral statistical properties of the sea surface temperatureof oceans. This oceanographic variable plays an important role in theglobalclimate system.…
An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…
Data-driven methods have become popular to parameterize the effects of mesoscale eddies in ocean models. However, they perform poorly in generalization tasks and may require retuning if the grid resolution or ocean configuration changes. We…
Reliable estimates of sea level return levels are crucial for coastal flooding risk assessments and for coastal flood defence design. We describe a novel method for estimating extreme sea levels that is the first to capture seasonality,…
Sea-level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage…
We develop Bayesian state space methods for modelling changes to the mean level or temporal correlation structure of an observed time series due to intermittent coupling with an unobserved process. Novel intervention methods are proposed to…
This paper studies the chaotic behavior of hydrosphere and its influence on global weather and climate. We give mathematical arguments for the sea surface temperature (SST) to be unpredictable over the global ocean. The impact of SST…
The offshore wind energy sector has rapidly expanded over the past two decades, providing a renewable energy solution for coastal nations. Sector development has been led in Europe, but is growing globally. Most developments to date have…
A new framework is proposed for the evaluation of stochastic subgrid-scale parameterizations in the context of MAOOAM, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity. Two physically-based parameterizations are investigated, the…
Large spatiotemporal demand datasets can prove intractable for location optimization problems, motivating the need to aggregate such data. However, demand aggregation introduces error which impacts the results of the location study. We…
A stochastic approach based on generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) is used to quantify the error in Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) of a spatially-evolving mixing layer flow and its sensitivity to different simulation parameters, viz. the grid…
Time series forecasting is a critical first step in generating demand plans for supply chains. Experiments on time series models typically focus on demonstrating improvements in forecast accuracy over existing/baseline solutions, quantified…
Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth's climate, primarily by affecting cloud formation and scattering visible radiation. However, aerosol-related physical processes in climate simulations are highly uncertain. Constraining these…
Stratospheric aerosols play an important role in the earth system and can affect the climate on timescales of months to years. However, estimating the characteristics of partially observed aerosol injections, such as those from volcanic…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, a measure of sea-level atmospheric pressure variability, holds significant influence over weather patterns in North America and Northern Europe. A negative (positive) NAO value signifies increased…
Understanding subsurface ocean dynamics is essential for quantifying oceanic heat and mass transport, but direct observations at depth remain sparse due to logistical and technological constraints. In contrast, satellite missions provide…
Recent unprecedented ocean warming has produced coherent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Despite extensive research on inter-basin interactions, the causal mechanisms linking North…