Related papers: Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal …
Several energy management applications rely on accurate photovoltaic generation forecasts. Common metrics like mean absolute error or root-mean-square error, omit error-distribution details needed for stochastic optimization. In addition,…
Probabilistic forecasting in combination with stochastic programming is a key tool for handling the growing uncertainties in future energy systems. Derived from a general stochastic programming formulation for the optimal scheduling and…
How will the climate system respond to anthropogenic forcings? One approach to this question relies on climate model projections. Current climate projections are considerably uncertain. Characterizing and, if possible, reducing this…
We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics and nonautonomous interaction at the air-sea interface. First, we show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is stable under the external…
Multi-step-ahead forecasts are often updated as new observations become available, since shorter forecast horizons typically improve forecast quality. However, such improvements come at the cost of forecast instability, i.e., variability in…
Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…
Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts help with managing the marine ecosystem and the aquaculture impacted by anthropogenic climate change. Numerical dynamical models are resource intensive for SST forecasts; machine learning (ML) models…
In many supply chains, the current efforts at digitalization have led to improved information exchanges between manufacturers and their customers. Specifically, demand forecasts are often provided by the customers and regularly updated as…
In our contemporary era, meteorological weather forecasts increasingly incorporate ensemble predictions of visibility - a parameter of great importance in aviation, maritime navigation, and air quality assessment, with direct implications…
Dealing with meteorological uncertainty poses a major challenge in air traffic management (ATM). Convective weather (commonly referred to as storms or thunderstorms) in particular represents a significant safety hazard that is responsible…
Since the prediction of climate is mainly considered as a prediction of second kind, it is indispensable to assess the accuracy with which these boundary conditions can be determined so that we can find a reasonable answer, whether climate…
Tunneling between two classically disconnected regular regions can be strongly affected by the presence of a chaotic sea in between. This phenomenon, known as chaos-assisted tunneling, gives rise to large fluctuations of the tunneling rate.…
Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…
In recent years, there has been a significant focus on advancing the next generation of power systems. Despite these efforts, persistent challenges revolve around addressing the operational impact of uncertainty on predicted data,…
Mathematical modelling of the evolution of the size-spectrum dynamics in aquatic ecosystems was discovered to be a powerful tool to have a deeper insight into impacts of human- and environmental driven changes on the marine ecosystem. In…
Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical…
Antarctic meltwater is expected to increase throughout the coming centuries and impact sea level, ocean circulation, and the coupled climate evolution. This motivates interest in understanding the ocean response to Antarctic freshwater…
The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that…
A system of five ordinary differential equations is studied which combines the Lorenz-84 model for the atmosphere and a box model for the ocean. The behaviour of this system is studied as a function of the coupling parameters. For most…
The relativistic timing affects of tidally redistributed ocean mass are investigated. The Sun, Moon, and Earth hurl through space, and their gravitational fields cause the tides which is a slight redistribution of ocean mass. This…