Related papers: Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal …
Stochastic schemes, designed to represent unresolved sub-grid scale variability, are frequently used in short and medium-range weather forecasts, where they are found to improve several aspects of the model. In recent years, the impact of…
The oceans play a fundamental role in Earth's climate system, redistributing heat and influencing global and regional climate variability and predictability across weather and climate timescales. The benefits of ocean-atmosphere coupling…
Stochastic parametrisations are used in weather and climate models to improve the representation of unpredictable unresolved processes. When compared to a deterministic model, a stochastic model represents `model uncertainty', i.e., sources…
Accurately quantifying air-sea fluxes is important for understanding air-sea interactions and improving coupled weather and climate systems. This study introduces a probabilistic framework to represent the highly variable nature of air-sea…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Weather and climate forecasts are inherently uncertain due to chaotic dynamics, imperfect initial conditions, and incomplete representation of the underlying physical processes. Operational ensemble forecasts aim to represent these…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model…
The investigation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is not only scientifically challenging but also practically important. We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and random…
Accurate representation of atmosphere-ocean boundary layers, including the interplay of turbulence, surface waves, and air-sea fluxes, remains a challenge in geophysical fluid dynamics, particularly for climate simulations. This study…
We develop and compare model-error representation schemes derived from data assimilation increments and nudging tendencies in multi-decadal simulations of the community atmosphere model, version 6. Each scheme applies a bias correction…
Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…
Imperfections and uncertainties in forecast models are often represented in ensemble prediction systems by stochastic perturbations of model equations. In this article, we present a new technique to generate model perturbations. The…
Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…
The spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) plays a central role in shaping the climate system, yet the influence of land surface temperature (LST) remains poorly understood. Using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean--land--atmosphere…
Dominant modes of SST in the west and east Pacific show strong but regionally different gradients caused by waves, internal dynamics, and anthropogenic warming, which drives air-sea interaction in the Pacific. The study discusses the…
Accurate regional ocean forecasting requires models that are both computationally efficient and capable of representing predictive uncertainty. This work investigates ensemble learning strategies for sea surface temperature (SST)…
A global hybrid coupled model is developed, with the aim of studying the effects of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks on the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The model includes a global ocean general circulation model…
Oil slicks are widely distributed in the ocean today, as a kind of coverage on sea surface, they became a part of ocean environment and affect their surroundings. A stochastic-dynamic theoretical model proposed in this work to illustrate…
The predictability of a coupled system composed by a coupled reduced-order extratropical ocean-atmosphere model forced by a low-order 3-variable tropical recharge-discharge model, is explored with emphasis on the long term forecasting…