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We introduce a general theory on stationary approximations for locally stationary continuous-time processes. Based on the stationary approximation, we use $\theta$-weak dependence to establish laws of large numbers and central limit type…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-01 Robert Stelzer , Bennet Ströh

The local regularity of functional time series is studied under $L^p-m-$appro\-ximability assumptions. The sample paths are observed with error at possibly random design points. Non-asymptotic concentration bounds of the regularity…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-21 Hassan Maissoro , Valentin Patilea , Myriam Vimond

A particular type of random dynamical processes is considered, in which the stochasticity is introduced through randomly fluctuating parameters. A method of local multipliers is developed for treating the local stability of such dynamical…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-06-25 V. I. Yukalov

We propose the use of indirect inference estimation to conduct inference in complex locally stationary models. We develop a local indirect inference algorithm and establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator. Due to the…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-12-17 David Frazier , Bonsoo Koo

Irregular multivariate time series data is characterized by varying time intervals between consecutive observations of measured variables/signals (i.e., features) and varying sampling rates (i.e., recordings/measurement) across these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Xingyu Chen , Xiaochen Zheng , Amina Mollaysa , Manuel Schürch , Ahmed Allam , Michael Krauthammer

In order to capture the dependence in the upper tail of a time series, we develop non-negative regularly-varying time series models that are constructed similarly to classical non-extreme ARMA models. Rather than fully characterizing tail…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-27 Nehali Mhatre , Daniel Cooley

With regard to a three-step estimation procedure, proposed without theoretical discussion by Li and You in Journal of Applied Statistics and Management, for a nonparametric regression model with time-varying regression function, local…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-27 Jiyanglin Li , Tao Li

We express the classic ARMA time-series model as a directed graphical model. In doing so, we find that the deterministic relationships in the model make it effectively impossible to use the EM algorithm for learning model parameters. To…

Applications · Statistics 2012-08-10 Bo Thiesson , David Maxwell Chickering , David Heckerman , Christopher Meek

We propose an $L^2$ norm for stationary Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models. We look at ARMA models within the Hilbert space of the past with present of a true purely linearly non-deterministic stationary process $X_t$, and compute…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Anand Ganesh , Babhrubahan Bose , Anand Rajagopalan

This paper challenges the dominance of stochastic trend models by introducing the Seasonal-Trend-Stationary ARMA (STSA) framework, which represents univariate nonstationary time series as stationary fluctuations around deterministic trend…

Applications · Statistics 2025-11-26 Zhandos Abdikhadir , Terence Tai Leung Chong

In this paper we propose a nonparametric procedure for validating the assumption of stationarity in multivariate locally stationary time series models. We develop a bootstrap assisted test based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov type statistic, which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-06 Ruprecht Puchstein , Philip Preuß

We introduce a wavelet-based model of local stationarity. This model enlarges the class of locally stationary wavelet processes and contains processes whose spectral density function may change very suddenly in time. A notion of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-08-12 Sébastien Van Bellegem , Rainer von Sachs

The Mat\'ern covariance model is ubiquitous in spatial modelling, but there is no default choice for spatio-temporal modelling. In this paper, we consider the recently proposed ``diffusion-based'' extension of the spatial Mat\'ern…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-30 S. Knutsen Furset , Geir-Arne Fuglstad , Espen R. Jakobsen

We propose an informal test for stationarity in a time series which checks for the compatibility of nonlinear approximations to the dynamics made in different segments of the sequence. The segments are compared directly, rather than via…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Thomas Schreiber

This paper investigates locally linear regression for locally stationary time series and develops theoretical results for locally linear smoothing and transfer learning. Existing analyses have focused on local constant estimators and given…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-19 Jinwoo Park

Linear processes on functional spaces were born about fifteen years ago. And this original topic went through the same fast development as the other areas of functional data modeling such as PCA or regression. They aim at generalizing to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-30 André Mas , Besnik Pumo

In this study, we develop an asymptotic theory of nonparametric regression for a locally stationary functional time series. First, we introduce the notion of a locally stationary functional time series (LSFTS) that takes values in a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-04 Daisuke Kurisu

In this paper, we investigate time-varying nonlinear time series regression for a broad class of locally stationary time series. First, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions that achieve uniform…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

The standard approach for studying the periodic ARMA model with coefficients that vary over the seasons is to express it in a vector form. In this paper we introduce an alternative method which views the periodic formulation as a time…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-03-20 Menelaos Karanasos , Alexandros Paraskevopoulos , Stavros Dafnos

Many real-world systems modeled using differential equations involve unknown or uncertain parameters. Standard approaches to address parameter estimation inverse problems in this setting typically focus on estimating constants; yet some…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-03-25 Anna Fitzpatrick , Molly Folino , Andrea Arnold