Related papers: An exceptional max-stable process fully parameteri…
Max-stability is the property that taking a maximum between two inputs results in a maximum between two outputs. We study max-stability with respect to first-order stochastic dominance, the most fundamental notion of stochastic dominance in…
Consider $n$ i.i.d. random elements on $C[0,1]$. We show that, under an appropriate strengthening of the domain of attraction condition, natural estimators of the extreme-value index, which is now a continuous function, and the normalizing…
We build optimal exponential bounds for the probabilities of large deviations of sums \sum_{k=1}^nf(X_k) where (X_k) is a finite reversible Markov chain and f is an arbitrary bounded function. These bounds depend only on the stationary mean…
We propose a new class of extreme-value copulas which are extreme-value limits of conditional normal models. Conditional normal models are generalizations of conditional independence models, where the dependence among observed variables is…
This paper develops an optimal Chernoff type bound for the probabilities of large deviations of sums $\sum_{k=1}^n f (X_k)$ where $f$ is a real-valued function and $(X_k)_{k \in \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}}$ is a finite state Markov chain with an…
Assessing the probability of occurrence of extreme events is a crucial issue in various fields like finance, insurance, telecommunication or environmental sciences. In a multivariate framework, the tail dependence is characterized by the…
Max-stable processes are the natural extension of the classical extreme-value distributions to the functional setting, and they are increasingly widely used to estimate probabilities of complex extreme events. In this paper we broaden them…
The Brown-Resnick max-stable process has proven to be well-suited for modeling extremes of complex environmental processes, but in many applications its likelihood function is intractable and inference must be based on a composite…
Multivariate extreme value statistical analysis is concerned with observations on several variables which are thought to possess some degree of tail-dependence. In areas such as the modeling of financial and insurance risks, or as the…
The recent contribution Dieker & Mikosch (2015) [1] obtained important representations of max-stable stationary Brown-Resnick random fields $\zeta_Z$ with a spectral representation determined by a Gaussian process $Z$. With motivations from…
We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is…
For every $n\in\N$, let $X_{1n},..., X_{nn}$ be independent copies of a zero-mean Gaussian process $X_n=\{X_n(t), t\in T\}$. We describe all processes which can be obtained as limits, as $n\to\infty$, of the process $a_n(M_n-b_n)$, where…
The Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm is widely used to optimise non-convex likelihood functions with latent variables. Many authors modified its simple design to fit more specific situations. For instance, the Expectation (E) step…
Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…
The tail process $\boldsymbol{Y}=(Y_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ of a stationary regularly varying random field $\boldsymbol{X}=(X_{\boldsymbol{i}})_{\boldsymbol{i}\in\mathbb{Z}^d}$ represents the asymptotic local…
We provide a new version of the Tikhonov theorem for both two-scale forward systems and also two-scale forward-backward systems of stochastic differential equations, which also covers the McKean-Vlasov case. Differently from what is usually…
The notion of stability can be generalised to point processes by defining the scaling operation in a randomised way: scaling a configuration by $t$ corresponds to letting such a configuration evolve according to a Markov branching particle…
Extreme events and the heavy tail distributions driven by them are ubiquitous in various scientific, engineering and financial research. They are typically associated with stochastic instability caused by hidden unresolved processes.…
We consider forecasting functional time series of extreme values within a generalised extreme value distribution (GEV). The GEV distribution can be characterised using the three parameters (location, scale and shape). As a result, the…
Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…