Related papers: Martingale marginals do not always determine conve…
A tight upper bound is given on the distribution of the maximum of a supermartingale. Specifically, it is shown that if $Y$ is a semimartingale with initial value zero and quadratic variation process $[Y,Y]$ such that $Y + [Y,Y]$ is a…
The marginal likelihood is a well established model selection criterion in Bayesian statistics. It also allows to efficiently calculate the marginal posterior model probabilities that can be used for Bayesian model averaging of quantities…
We give a theory of sublinear expectations and martingales in discrete time. Without assuming the existence of a dominating probability measure, we derive the extensions of classical results on uniform integrability, optional stopping of…
Using a hierarchical construction, we develop methods for a wide and flexible class of models by taking a fully parametric approach to generalized linear mixed models with complex covariance dependence. The Laplace approximation is used to…
Measures of association in contingency tables, such as odds ratios and their generalizations, are often studied under different sampling schemes that either fix or leave random the margins of the table. While classical results show that…
The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…
The main result of the article reads: the distribution of a continuous starting from zero local martingale whose quadratic characteristic is almost surely absolutely continuous with respect to some non-random increasing continuous function…
The predictive Bayesian view involves eliciting a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions in lieu of specifying a likelihood function and prior distribution. Recent methods have leveraged predictive distributions which are…
In this paper we estimate the rest of the approximation of a stationary process by a martingale in terms of the projections of partial sums. Then, based on this estimate, we obtain almost sure approximation of partial sums by a martingale…
We characterize the event of convergence of a local supermartingale. Conditions are given in terms of its predictable characteristics and quadratic variation. The notion of stationarily local integrability plays a key role.
The Bernstein inequality is a tight upper bound on tail probabilities for independent random variables. Freedman extended the Bernstein inequality to martingales with differences bounded from above, and then Dzhaparidze and van Zanten…
Renz (Ann. Probab. 1996) has established a rate of convergence $1/\sqrt{n}$ in the central limit theorem for martingales with some restrictive conditions. In the present paper a modification of the methods, developed by Bolthausen (Ann.…
In this paper, we study the asymptotic behavior of sums of functions of the increments of a given semimartingale, taken along a regular grid whose mesh goes to 0. The function of the $i$th increment may depend on the current time, and also…
We develop a martingale approximation framework yielding quantitative maximal large deviations estimates for invertible dynamical systems. From suitable decay of correlations, we deduce these estimates and, as an application, we obtain…
A strict local martingale is a local martingale which is not a martingale. There are few explicit examples of "naturally occurring" strict local martingales with jumps available in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to provide…
We derive inequalities for time-discrete and time-continuous martingales that are similar to the well-known Burkholder inequalities. For the time-discrete case arbitrary martingales in $L^p(\Omega)$ are treated, whereas in the…
In the context of Risk Neutral Pricing theory, we consider the classic problem of calibrating a martingale over $\mathbb{R}^n$ to a finite number of marginals thereof, or more practically, to prices of an arbitrary finite set of (joint)…
We construct a class of nonnegative martingale processes that oscillate indefinitely with high probability. For these processes, we state a uniform rate of the number of oscillations and show that this rate is asymptotically close to the…
Consider a real-valued branching random walk in the boundary case. Using the techniques developed by A\"id\'ekon and Shi [5], we give two integral tests which describe respectively the lower limits for the minimal position and the upper…
The family of log-concave density functions contains various kinds of common probability distributions. Due to the shape restriction, it is possible to find the nonparametric estimate of the density, for example, the nonparametric maximum…