Related papers: Martingale marginals do not always determine conve…
We consider a branching random walk in the non-boundary case where the additive martingale $W_n$ converges a.s. and in mean to some non-degenerate limit $W_\infty$. We first establish the joint tail distribution of $W_\infty$ and the global…
We construct a family of self-similar Markov martingales with given marginal distributions. This construction uses the self-similarity and Markov property of a reference process to produce a family of Markov processes that possess the same…
We use the martingale-theoretic approach of game-theoretic probability to incorporate imprecision into the study of randomness. In particular, we define several notions of randomness associated with interval, rather than precise,…
A convex duality result for martingale optimal transport problems with two marginals was established in Beiglb\"ock et al. (2013). In this paper we provide a generalization of this result to the multi-period setting.
We investigate the almost sure asymptotic properties of vector martingale transforms. Assuming some appropriate regularity conditions both on the increasing process and on the moments of the martingale, we prove that normalized moments of…
We exhibit conditions under which the flow of marginal distributions of a discontinuous semimartingale $\xi$ can be matched by a Markov process, whose infinitesimal generator is expressed in terms of the local characteristics of $\xi$. Our…
A proof of the continuous martingale convergence theorem is provided. It relies on a classical martingale inequality and the almost sure convergence of a uniformly bounded non-negative super-martingale, after a truncation argument.
Marginal structural models were introduced in order to provide estimates of causal effects from interventions based on observational studies in epidemiological research. The key point is that this can be understood in terms of Girsanov's…
In this paper we prove exponential inequalities (also called Bernstein's inequality) for fractional martingales. As an immediate corollary, we will discuss weak law of large numbers for fractional martingales under divergence assumption on…
We obtain a condition for the $L^q$-convergence of martingales generated by random multiplicative cascade measures for $q>1$ without any self-similarity requirements on the cascades.
Uncertainty associated with statistical problems arises due to what has not been seen as opposed to what has been seen. Using probability to quantify the uncertainty the task is to construct a probability model for what has not been seen…
The classic model of computable randomness considers martingales that take real or rational values. Recent work by Bienvenu et al. (2012) and Teutsch (2014) shows that fundamental features of the classic model change when the martingales…
In this paper, we consider partial sums of triangular martingale differences weighted by random variables drawn uniformly on the sphere, and globally independent of the martingale differences. Starting from the so-called principle of…
This paper proves joint convergence of the approximation error for several stochastic integrals with respect to local Brownian semimartingales, for nonequidistant and random grids. The conditions needed for convergence are that the Lebesgue…
We consider the problem of distribution-free predictive inference, with the goal of producing predictive coverage guarantees that hold conditionally rather than marginally. Existing methods such as conformal prediction offer marginal…
We are interested in martingale rearrangement couplings. As introduced by Wiesel [37] in order to prove the stability of Martingale Optimal Transport problems, these are projections in adapted Wasserstein distance of couplings between two…
Dzhaparidze and Spreij [5] showed that the quadratic variation of a semimartingale can be approximated using a randomized periodogram. We show that the same approximation is valid for a special class of continuous stochastic processes. This…
This article extends the literature on copulas with discrete or continuous marginals to the case where some of the marginals are a mixture of discrete and continuous components. We do so by carefully defining the likelihood as the density…
Within a contest there is some probability M_i(t) that contestant i will be the winner, given information available at time t, and M_i(t) must be a martingale in t. Assume continuous paths, to capture the idea that relevant information is…
A strict local martingale is a local martingale that is not a martingale. We investigate how such a process might arise from a true martingale as a result of an enlargement of the filtration. We study and implement a particular type of…