Related papers: Precipitation extremes under climate change
We revisit a recent claim that the Earth's climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
We analyse the probability densities of daily rainfall amounts at a variety of locations on the Earth. The observed distributions of the amount of rainfall fit well to a q-exponential distribution with exponent q close to q=1.3. We discuss…
When the climate system is forced, e.g. by emission of greenhouse gases, it responds on multiple time scales. As temperatures rise, feedback processes might intensify or weaken. Current methods to analyze feedback strength, however, do not…
To study trends in extreme precipitation across US over the years 1951-2017, we consider 10 climate indexes that represent extreme precipitation, such as annual maximum of daily precipitation, annual maximum of consecutive 5-day average…
We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…
The atmospheres of rocky exoplanets are close to being characterized by astronomical observations, in part due to the commissioning of the James Webb Space Telescope. These observations compel us to understand exoplanetary atmospheres, in…
Near-surface extreme winds profoundly affect human society, yet process-based understanding of their changes under climate forcings remains limited. This study systematically investigates the responses of high (HWE) and low (LWE) wind…
Hot giant exoplanets are very exotic objects with no equivalent in the Solar System that allow us to study the behavior of atmospheres under extreme conditions. Their thermal and chemical day--night dichotomies associated with extreme wind…
The effect caused by the presence of a number of distinct time scales in a simple stochastic model for the Earth's atmosphere temperature fluctuations is studied. The model is described by a dissipative dynamics consisting of a set of…
Motivated by the EVA 2025 Data Challenge, we address the problem of predicting extreme rainfall in the eastern United States using data from a large ensemble of climate model runs. The challenge focuses on three quantities of interest…
In highly renewable power systems the increased weather dependence can result in new resilience challenges, such as renewable energy droughts, or a lack of sufficient renewable generation at times of high demand. The weather conditions…
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports indicate that the global mean temperature is about one-degree Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels, that this increase is anthropogenic, and that there is a causal relationship…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
Extreme events gain the attention of researchers due to their utmost importance in various contexts ranging from finance to climatology. This brings such recurrent events to the limelight of attention in interdisciplinary research. A…
This study provides a summary of the theory which enables the analysis of extreme values, i.e., of measurements acquired from the observation of extraordinary/rare physical phenomena. The formalism is developed in a transparent way,…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…
Short-term (0-24 hours) precipitation forecasting is highly valuable to socioeconomic activities and public safety. However, the highly complex evolution patterns of precipitation events, the extreme imbalance between precipitation and…
In this article, we review the interdisciplinary techniques (borrowed from physics, mathematics, statistics, machine-learning, etc.) and methodological framework that we have used to understand climate systems, which serve as examples of…