Related papers: Precipitation extremes under climate change
Recent research has community have shown that tropical convection and rainfall is sensitive to mid-tropospheric humidity. Therefore it has been suggested to improve the representation of moist convection by making cumulus parameterizations…
AI weather foundation models now achieve forecast skill comparable to numerical weather prediction at far lower computational cost, yet their predictability for high-impact extremes across dynamical regimes remains uncertain. We evaluate…
Understanding the complex interactions between land surface and atmosphere is essential to improve weather and climate predictions. Various numerical experiments have suggested that regions of strong coupling strength (hotspots) are located…
Ice storms are extreme weather events that can have devastating implications for the sustainability of natural ecosystems as well as man made infrastructure. Ice storms are caused by a complex mix of atmospheric conditions and are among the…
Extreme weather events have an enormous impact on society and are expected to become more frequent and severe with climate change. In this context, resilience planning becomes crucial for risk mitigation and coping with these extreme…
Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) poses a great challenge due to their highly nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties. Conventional statistical dynamics and artificial intelligence prediction models typically rely…
Rainfall in coastal areas of the tropics is often shaped by the presence of circulations directly associated with the topography, such as land-sea and/or mountain-valley breezes. In many regions the coastally-affected rainfall consitutes…
The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…
Extreme value statistics provides accurate estimates for the small occurrence probabilities of rare events. While theory and statistical tools for univariate extremes are well-developed, methods for high-dimensional and complex data sets…
Several theoretical results concerning event-by-event fluctuations are discussed: (1) a role of the global conservation laws and concept of statistical ensembles; (2) strongly intensive measures are introduced; they give a possibility to…
The insolation a planet receives from its parent star is the main driver of the climate and depends on the planet's orbital configuration. Planets with non-zero obliquity and eccentricity experience seasonal insolation variations. As a…
A new approach for evaluating time-trends in extreme values accounting also for spatial dependence is proposed. Based on exceedances over a space-time threshold, estimators for a trend function and for extreme value parameters are given,…
The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change.…
What kind of environment may exist on terrestrial planets around other stars? In spite of the lack of direct observations, it may not be premature to speculate on exoplanetary climates, for instance to optimize future telescopic…
Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…
The second law of thermodynamics implies a relationship between the net entropy export by the Earth and its internal irreversible entropy production. The application of this constraint for the purpose of understanding Earth's climate is…
To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained…
A thermodynamic device placed outdoors, or a local ecosystem, is subject to a variety of different temperatures given by short-tem (daily) and long-term (seasonal) variations. In the long term a superstatistical description makes sense,…
Climate change poses increasingly complex challenges to our society. Extreme weather events such as floods, wild fires or droughts are becoming more frequent, spontaneous and difficult to foresee or counteract. In this work we specifically…
The hydrologic cycle has wide impacts on the ocean salinity and circulation, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and the ecosystem. Under anthropogenic global warming, previous studies showed that the intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a…