Related papers: Forest Fire Model as a Supercritical Dynamic Model…
Climate change has emerged as a significant global concern, attracting increasing attention worldwide. While green bubbles may be examined through a social bubble hypothesis, it is essential not to neglect a Climate Minsky moment triggered…
We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…
We develop a model for point processes on the real line, where the intensity can be locally unbounded without inducing an explosion. In contrast to an orderly point process, for which the probability of observing more than one event over a…
Phase transitions and critical behavior are crucial issues both in theoretical and experimental neuroscience. We report analytic and computational results about phase transitions and self-organized criticality (SOC) in networks with general…
Many dynamical systems operate in a fluctuating environment. However, even in low-dimensional setups, transitions and bifurcations have not yet been fully understood. In this Letter we focus on crises, a sudden flooding of the phase space…
We numerically investigate the Olami-Feder-Christensen model for earthquakes in order to characterise its scaling behaviour. We show that ordinary finite size scaling in the model is violated due to global, system wide events. Nevertheless…
Trust lies at the crux of most economic transactions, with credit markets being a notable example. Drawing on insights from the literature on coordination games and network growth, we develop a simple model to clarify how trust breaks down…
Across plant communities worldwide, fire regimes reflect a combination of climatic factors and plant characteristics. To shed new light on the complex relationships between plant characteristics and fire regimes, we developed a new…
We propose a formula of time-series prediction by means of three states random field Ising model (RFIM). At the economic crisis due to disasters or international disputes, the stock price suddenly drops. The macroscopic phenomena should be…
Financial event studies, ubiquitous in finance research, typically use linear factor models with known factors to estimate abnormal returns and identify causal effects of information events. This paper demonstrates that when factor models…
We reconsider a model introduced by Bak, Chen, and Tang (Phys. Rev. A 38, 364 (1988)) as a supposedly self-organized critical model for forest fires. We verify again that the model is not critical in 2 dimensions, as found also by previous…
We study how the phenomenon of contagion can take place in the network of the world's stock exchanges due to the behavioral trait "blindeness to small changes". On large scale individual, the delay in the collective response may…
Trust is a collective, self-fulfilling phenomenon that suggests analogies with phase transitions. We introduce a stylized model for the build-up and collapse of trust in networks, which generically displays a first order transition. The…
Distributed systems often exhibit emergent behaviors that impact their resilience (Franz-Kaiser et al., 2020; Adilson E. Motter, 2002; Jianxi Gao, 2016). This paper presents a theoretical framework combining attributed graph models,…
Forest-savanna bistability - the hypothesis that forests and savannas exist as alternative stable states in the tropics - and its implications are key challenges for mathematical modelers and ecologists in the context of ongoing climate…
We consider stochastic growth models for populations organized in colonies and subject to uniform catastrophes. To assess population viability, we analyze scenarios in which individuals adopt dispersion strategies after catastrophic events.…
In complex systems like financial market, risk tolerance of individuals is crucial for system resilience.The single-security price limit, designed as risk tolerance to protect investors by avoiding sharp price fluctuation, is blamed for…
A theoretical model of systemic-risk propagation of financial market is analyzed for stability. The state equation is an unsteady diffusion equation with a nonlinear logistic growth term, where the diffusion process captures the spread of…
In normal times, it is assumed that financial institutions operating in non-overlapping sectors have complementary and distinct outcomes, typically reflected in mostly uncorrelated outcomes and asset returns. Such is the reasoning behind…
The dynamics of a fibre-bundle type model with equal load sharing rule is numerically studied. The system, formed by N elements, is driven by a slow increase of the load upon it which is removed in a novel way through internal transfers to…