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Historically, the economic recession often came abruptly and disastrously. For instance, during the 2008 financial crisis, the SP 500 fell 46 percent from October 2007 to March 2009. If we could detect the signals of the crisis earlier, we…
Topological data analysis has been acknowledged as one of the most successful mathematical data analytic methodologies in various fields including medicine, genetics, and image analysis. In this paper, we explore the potential of this…
The crowd panic and its contagion play non-negligible roles at the time of the stock crash, especially for China where inexperienced investors dominate the market. However, existing models rarely consider investors in networking stocks and…
Building fires pose a persistent threat to life, property, and infrastructure, emphasizing the need for advanced risk mitigation strategies. This study presents a data-driven framework analyzing U.S. fire risks by integrating over one…
The objective of the present study is twofold. First, the last developments and validation results of a hybrid model designed to simulate fire patterns in heterogeneous landscapes are presented. The model combines the features of a…
We address the problem of banking system resilience by applying off-equilibrium statistical physics to a system of particles, representing the economic agents, modelled according to the theoretical foundation of the current banking…
Wildfires can severely damage electricity grids leading to long periods of power interruption. Climate change will exacerbate this threat by increasing the frequency of dry climate conditions. Under these climate conditions, human-related…
Scale-free dynamics in physical and biological systems can arise from a variety of causes. Here, we explore a branching process which leads to such dynamics. We find conditions for the appearance of power laws and study quantitatively what…
The sun provides an explosive, heavenly example of self-organized criticality. Sudden bursts of intense radiation emanate from rapid rearrangements of the magnetic field network in the corona. Avalanches are triggered by loops of flux that…
The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network…
Climate extremes, such as hurricanes, combined with large-scale integration of environment-sensitive renewables, could exacerbate the risk of widespread power outages. We introduce a coupled climate-energy model for cascading power outages,…
This paper deals with the modeling of social competition, possibly resulting in the onset of extreme conflicts. More precisely, we discuss models describing the interplay between individual competition for wealth distribution that, when…
This paper applies the theory of continuous phase transitions of statistical mechanics to a slider-block model. The slider-block model is chosen as a representative of systems with avalanches. Similar behavior can be observed in a…
Financial crises often occur without warning, yet markets leading up to these events display increasing volatility and complex interdependencies across multiple sectors. This study proposes a novel approach to predicting market crises by…
We present a network-based framework for simulating systemic risk that considers shock propagation in banking systems. In particular, the framework allows the modeller to reflect a top-down framework where a shock to one bank in the system…
A simple model economy with locally interacting producers and consumers is introduced. When driven by extremal dynamics, the model self-organizes {\em not} to an attractor state, but to an asymptote, on which the economy has a constant rate…
The DebtRank algorithm has been increasingly investigated as a method to estimate the impact of shocks in financial networks, as it overcomes the limitations of the traditional default-cascade approaches. Here we formulate a dynamical…
The Olami--Feder--Christensen earthquake model is often considered the prototype dissipative self--organized critical model. It is shown that the size distribution of events in this model results from a complex interplay of several…
The stability of powergrid is crucial since its disruption affects systems ranging from street lightings to hospital life-support systems. Nevertheless, large blackouts are inevitable if powergrids are in the state of self-organized…
Our paper computationally explores the extinction dynamics of an animal species effected by a sudden spike in mortality due to an extreme event. In our study, the animal species has a 2-year life cycle and is endowed with a high survival…